Latvia U21 vs Germany U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 19Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadions Skonto, Riga
The Footlab model makes Germany U21 the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Latvia U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Latvia U21 vs Germany U21?
Germany U21 is a heavy favourite: 1,757 Elo points against 1,377, a 380-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Latvia U21 have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Germany U21 have 12, 1 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Northern Ireland U21(home) | 1-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Georgia U21(away) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Malta U21(away) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Northern Ireland U21(away) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Greece U21(home) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Greece U21(away) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Northern Ireland U21(home) | 3-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Georgia U21(away) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Malta U21(home) | 6-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Northern Ireland U21(away) | 2-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Latvia U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Germany U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 9, 2025 | Germany U21 5-0 Latvia U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 25, 2022 | Germany U21 4-0 Latvia U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Sep 7, 2021 | Latvia U21 1-3 Germany U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Germany U21 vs Latvia U21 on Sep 9, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Latvia U21 score 0.8 and concede 2.0 goals per match over their last 15; Germany U21 score 2.9 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Latvia U21 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Germany U21 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 8 | 7/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Latvia U21 sit 5th in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (5 points from 7 matches) and Germany U21 sit 1st (18 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Germany U21 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Latvia U21 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Latvia U21 vs Germany U21?
- The Footlab model makes Germany U21 the favourite at 59%, against 22% for a draw and 19% for Latvia U21.
- Where and when is Latvia U21 vs Germany U21 played?
- Latvia U21 vs Germany U21 is played on September 26, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadions Skonto, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 25, 2026England U21vsKazakhstan U21
- Sep 25, 2026Iceland U21vsFrance U21
- Sep 25, 2026Netherlands U21vsNorway U21
- Sep 25, 2026Slovakia U21vsRepublic of Ireland U21
- Sep 25, 2026Switzerland U21vsLuxembourg U21
- Sep 26, 2026Croatia U21vsHungary U21
- Sep 26, 2026Georgia U21vsGreece U21
- Sep 26, 2026Malta U21vsNorthern Ireland U21