Estonia U21 vs France U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 20Kick-off on September 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)A. Le Coq Arena, Tallinn
The Footlab model makes France U21 the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Estonia U21. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Estonia U21 vs France U21?
France U21 is a heavy favourite: 1,692 Elo points against 1,279, a 412-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Estonia U21 have 2 wins, 2 draws and 11 defeats; France U21 have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Switzerland U21(away) | 1-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Iceland U21(away) | 2-6 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 13, 2025 | France U21(away) | 1-6 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Luxembourg U21(home) | 2-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Sep 8, 2025 | Iceland U21(home) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Iceland U21(home) | 2-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Luxembourg U21(away) | 5-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Faroe Islands U21(home) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Switzerland U21(away) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 13, 2025 | Estonia U21(home) | 6-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Estonia U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 France U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 13, 2025 | France U21 6-1 Estonia U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: France U21 vs Estonia U21 on Oct 13, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Estonia U21 score 0.9 and concede 3.3 goals per match over their last 15; France U21 score 2.5 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 67% probability of over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia U21 | 0.9 | 3.3 | 1 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| France U21 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Estonia U21 sit 6th in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (2 points from 7 matches) and France U21 sit 1st (16 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France U21 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Estonia U21 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 8 | 21 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Estonia U21 vs France U21?
- The Footlab model makes France U21 the favourite at 56%, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Estonia U21.
- Where and when is Estonia U21 vs France U21 played?
- Estonia U21 vs France U21 is played on September 29, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at A. Le Coq Arena, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 67% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 28, 2026Belgium U21vsWales U21
- Sep 28, 2026Denmark U21vsBelarus U21
- Sep 29, 2026Iceland U21vsSwitzerland U21
- Sep 29, 2026Norway U21vsBosnia-Herzegovina U21
- Sep 29, 2026Republic of Ireland U21vsKazakhstan U21
- Sep 29, 2026Slovenia U21vsIsrael U21
- Sep 30, 2026Czechia U21vsBulgaria U21
- Sep 30, 2026Faroe Islands U21vsLuxembourg U21