Ind. Yumbo vs Orsomarso: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 11Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)
The Footlab model makes Ind. Yumbo the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Orsomarso. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ind. Yumbo vs Orsomarso?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Ind. Yumbo (1,578) and Orsomarso (1,496).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ind. Yumbo have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Orsomarso have 4, 8 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Real Santander(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Real Cartagena(away) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Envigado(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Depor FC(away) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| May 21, 2026 | Jaguares(away) | 0-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Real Soacha(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Patriotas(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Union Magdalena(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| May 20, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(away) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Ind. Yumbo win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Orsomarso win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Orsomarso 2-0 Ind. Yumbo | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Orsomarso vs Ind. Yumbo on Mar 21, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ind. Yumbo score 0.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Orsomarso score 1.0 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 32% probability of over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ind. Yumbo | 0.7 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 3/15 |
| Orsomarso | 1.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 2/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ind. Yumbo sit 9th in Primera B (19 points from 15 matches) and Orsomarso sit 10th (17 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ind. Yumbo | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Ind. Yumbo | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Orsomarso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Orsomarso | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 9 | Ind. Yumbo | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 19 |
| 9 | Ind. Yumbo | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | 13 | 14 | 19 |
| 9 | Ind. Yumbo | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 18 | 16 | 26 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Orsomarso | 18 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 15 | 18 | 22 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ind. Yumbo vs Orsomarso?
- The Footlab model makes Ind. Yumbo the favourite at 38%, against 32% for a draw and 30% for Orsomarso.
- Where and when is Ind. Yumbo vs Orsomarso played?
- Ind. Yumbo vs Orsomarso is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC), in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 32% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.