Orsomarso vs Quindio: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 12Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata, Barrancabermeja
The Footlab model makes Quindio the favourite at 36%, against 34% for a draw and 30% for Orsomarso. The most likely score is 0-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Orsomarso vs Quindio?
Quindio starts as the favourite with a 107-point Elo edge (1,604 vs 1,496).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Orsomarso have 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 defeats; Quindio have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Real Soacha(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Patriotas(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Union Magdalena(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Barranquilla(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| May 20, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(away) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Envigado(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Leones FC(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Deportes Tolima(home) | 2-1 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Popayan(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Orsomarso win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Quindio win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2026 | Quindio 2-2 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Oct 19, 2025 | Orsomarso 2-3 Quindio | Primera B |
| May 13, 2025 | Quindio 0-0 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Nov 18, 2024 | Quindio 0-2 Orsomarso | Primera B |
| Nov 4, 2024 | Orsomarso 0-0 Quindio | Primera B |
| Aug 22, 2024 | Orsomarso 0-1 Quindio | Primera B |
How many goals should we expect?
Orsomarso score 1.0 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Quindio score 0.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 28% probability of over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orsomarso | 1.0 | 0.9 | 6 | 7/15 | 2/15 |
| Quindio | 0.9 | 0.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Orsomarso sit 10th in Primera B (17 points from 15 matches) and Quindio sit 4th (31 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Quindio | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Quindio | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 31 |
| 3 | Orsomarso | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 8 |
| 4 | Quindio | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 31 |
| 4 | Quindio | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 16 | 46 |
| 7 | Orsomarso | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Quindio | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Quindio | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 10 | Orsomarso | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 13 | 17 | 17 |
| 11 | Orsomarso | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 25 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Orsomarso vs Quindio?
- The Footlab model makes Quindio the favourite at 36%, against 34% for a draw and 30% for Orsomarso.
- Where and when is Orsomarso vs Quindio played?
- Orsomarso vs Quindio is played on October 3, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 28% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.