Envigado vs Depor FC: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 11Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Polideportivo Sur, Envigado
The Footlab model makes Envigado the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Depor FC. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Envigado vs Depor FC?
Envigado starts as the favourite with a 290-point Elo edge (1,640 vs 1,349).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Envigado have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Depor FC have 1, 5 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Quindio(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 1-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Once Caldas(home) | 0-3 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Real Soacha(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Patriotas(away) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Real Santander(home) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Barranquilla(away) | 2-2 | Primera B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| May 30, 2026 | Millonarios(home) | 1-8 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 2 Envigado win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Depor FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2026 | Depor FC 1-2 Envigado | Primera B |
| Feb 22, 2023 | Envigado 2-0 Depor FC | Copa Colombia |
| Feb 15, 2023 | Depor FC 2-0 Envigado | Copa Colombia |
How many goals should we expect?
Envigado score 1.0 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Depor FC score 0.9 and concede 2.4. The model gives a 53% probability of over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Envigado | 1.0 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 6/15 |
| Depor FC | 0.9 | 2.4 | 0 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Envigado sit 2nd in Primera B (33 points from 17 matches) and Depor FC sit 15th (9 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Envigado | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Envigado | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 28 | 17 | 33 |
| 3 | Envigado | 27 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 37 | 24 | 48 |
| 4 | Envigado | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | 24 | 14 | 29 |
| 6 | Envigado | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 11 | Envigado | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Depor FC | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 2 |
| 15 | Depor FC | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 23 | 9 |
| 15 | Depor FC | 15 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 12 | 23 | 9 |
| 15 | Depor FC | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 2 |
| 16 | Depor FC | 19 | 1 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 31 | 11 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Envigado vs Depor FC?
- The Footlab model makes Envigado the favourite at 73%, against 18% for a draw and 9% for Depor FC.
- Where and when is Envigado vs Depor FC played?
- Envigado vs Depor FC is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Polideportivo Sur, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 53% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.