Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 11Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Sierra Nevada, Santa Marta
The Footlab model makes Union Magdalena the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Real Cartagena. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
A very open match: only 1 Elo points separate Union Magdalena (1,622) and Real Cartagena (1,621).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Union Magdalena have 6 wins, 4 draws and 5 defeats; Real Cartagena have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Santa Fe(away) | 0-2 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Orsomarso(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Bogota FC(away) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| May 21, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 24, 2026 | Leones FC(away) | 6-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Bogota FC(home) | 2-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ind. Yumbo(home) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Real Soacha(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 30, 2026 | America de Cali(home) | 1-1 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Union Magdalena win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Real Cartagena win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Union Magdalena 3-0 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
| May 9, 2026 | Real Cartagena 2-1 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
| Mar 23, 2026 | Real Cartagena 2-1 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
| Aug 25, 2024 | Real Cartagena 2-0 Union Magdalena | Primera B |
| Mar 11, 2024 | Union Magdalena 2-2 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
| Aug 31, 2021 | Union Magdalena 1-0 Real Cartagena | Primera B |
Last archived meeting: Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena on May 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Union Magdalena score 1.3 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Real Cartagena score 1.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Union Magdalena | 1.3 | 0.9 | 6 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
| Real Cartagena | 1.8 | 1.2 | 3 | 10/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Union Magdalena sit 3rd in Primera B (32 points from 15 matches) and Real Cartagena sit 5th (27 points from 17 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 6 | 13 |
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 5 | 10 |
| 1 | Real Cartagena | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 48 | 30 | 50 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 2 | Union Magdalena | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Real Cartagena | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 4 |
| 3 | Union Magdalena | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 27 | 15 | 32 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 27 |
| 5 | Real Cartagena | 15 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 23 | 15 | 26 |
| 5 | Union Magdalena | 24 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 35 | 21 | 42 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | Union Magdalena | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena?
- The Footlab model makes Union Magdalena the favourite at 41%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Real Cartagena.
- Where and when is Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena played?
- Union Magdalena vs Real Cartagena is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Sierra Nevada, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.