Quindio vs Bogota FC: prediction and stats
Primera BClausura - 11Kick-off on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Centenario, Armenia
The Footlab model makes Quindio the favourite at 54%, against 30% for a draw and 16% for Bogota FC. The most likely score is 1-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Quindio vs Bogota FC?
Quindio starts as the favourite with a 143-point Elo edge (1,599 vs 1,456).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Quindio have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Bogota FC have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Envigado(home) | 1-0 | Primera B |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(home) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Leones FC(away) | 1-1 | Primera B |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Deportes Tolima(home) | 2-1 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Popayan(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Popayan(away) | 2-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 20, 2026 | Real Cartagena(away) | 0-2 | Primera B |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Leones FC(home) | 0-1 | Primera B |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(away) | 0-0 | Primera B |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto(home) | 0-3 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Quindio win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Bogota FC win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 20, 2026 | Bogota FC 0-2 Quindio | Primera B |
| Sep 26, 2025 | Quindio 6-1 Bogota FC | Primera B |
| Apr 19, 2025 | Bogota FC 1-1 Quindio | Primera B |
| Aug 26, 2024 | Quindio 2-2 Bogota FC | Primera B |
| Mar 10, 2024 | Bogota FC 2-2 Quindio | Primera B |
| Jul 26, 2023 | Quindio 1-0 Bogota FC | Primera B |
How many goals should we expect?
Quindio score 0.9 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Bogota FC score 0.7 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 31% probability of over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quindio | 0.9 | 0.8 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
| Bogota FC | 0.7 | 1.1 | 5 | 5/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Quindio sit 4th in Primera B (31 points from 15 matches) and Bogota FC sit 6th (23 points from 15 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Quindio | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 10 |
| 3 | Quindio | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 31 |
| 4 | Bogota FC | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 3 |
| 4 | Quindio | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 20 | 10 | 31 |
| 4 | Quindio | 25 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 27 | 16 | 46 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 16 | 14 | 23 |
| 6 | Bogota FC | 26 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 22 | 26 | 33 |
| 7 | Bogota FC | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 8 | Bogota FC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 9 | Quindio | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Quindio | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Quindio vs Bogota FC?
- The Footlab model makes Quindio the favourite at 54%, against 30% for a draw and 16% for Bogota FC.
- Where and when is Quindio vs Bogota FC played?
- Quindio vs Bogota FC is played on September 26, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Centenario, in the Primera B.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 31% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.