Emelec vs Leones del Norte: prediction and stats
Liga ProRegular Season - 27Kick-off on August 30, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC)Estadio George Capwell, Guayaquil
The Footlab model makes Emelec the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Leones del Norte. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Emelec vs Leones del Norte?
A very open match: only 12 Elo points separate Emelec (1,702) and Leones del Norte (1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Emelec have 4 wins, 7 draws and 4 defeats; Leones del Norte have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Tecnico Universitario(home) | 2-1 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Guayaquil City FC(away) | 0-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Aucas(home) | 0-2 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Deportivo Cuenca(away) | 1-2 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Mushuc Runa SC(home) | 1-1 | Liga Pro |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Independiente del Valle(home) | 2-3 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Manta FC(away) | 2-0 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Aucas(away) | 0-3 | Liga Pro |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Barcelona SC(home) | 1-1 | Liga Pro |
| Jul 30, 2026 | LDU de Quito(away) | 0-6 | Copa Ecuador |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Emelec win(s), 1 draw(s), 1 Leones del Norte win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 3, 2026 | Leones del Norte 2-0 Emelec | Liga Pro |
| Oct 8, 2025 | Leones del Norte 0-0 Emelec | Copa Ecuador |
Last archived meeting: Leones del Norte vs Emelec on May 3, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Emelec score 0.8 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Leones del Norte score 1.3 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emelec | 0.8 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 3/15 |
| Leones del Norte | 1.3 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Emelec sit 13th in Liga Pro (29 points from 25 matches) and Leones del Norte sit 7th (35 points from 26 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Leones del Norte | 26 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 28 | 28 | 35 |
| 13 | Emelec | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 21 | 29 | 29 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Emelec vs Leones del Norte?
- The Footlab model makes Emelec the favourite at 43%, against 27% for a draw and 30% for Leones del Norte.
- Where and when is Emelec vs Leones del Norte played?
- Emelec vs Leones del Norte is played on August 30, 2026 at 11:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio George Capwell, in the Liga Pro.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 49% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.