Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional: prediction and stats
Primera AClausura - 13Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, Bogotá, D.C.
The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Internacional de Bogota. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional?
Atletico Nacional starts as the favourite with a 268-point Elo edge (1,916 vs 1,648).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Internacional de Bogota have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Atletico Nacional have 11, 0 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Deportivo Cali(away) | 2-2 | Primera A |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Cucuta(away) | 1-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Deportes Tolima(away) | 1-2 | Primera A |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Jaguares(home) | 1-0 | Primera A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Internacional Palmira(away) | 2-1 | Copa Colombia |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Fortaleza FC(away) | 2-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 10, 2026 | America de Cali(away) | 0-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Jaguares(away) | 3-0 | Primera A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Tigres FC(away) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
| Jul 21, 2026 | Tigres FC(home) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Internacional de Bogota win(s), 0 draw(s), 5 Atletico Nacional win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 12, 2026 | Atletico Nacional 7-1 Internacional de Bogota | Primera A |
| May 9, 2026 | Internacional de Bogota 1-2 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Mar 22, 2026 | Atletico Nacional 3-0 Internacional de Bogota | Primera A |
| Jul 19, 2025 | Atletico Nacional 3-1 Internacional de Bogota | Primera A |
| Feb 2, 2025 | Internacional de Bogota 0-1 Atletico Nacional | Primera A |
| Jul 31, 2024 | Atletico Nacional 0-1 Internacional de Bogota | Primera A |
Last archived meeting: Atletico Nacional vs Internacional de Bogota on May 12, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Internacional de Bogota score 1.3 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Atletico Nacional score 1.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Internacional de Bogota | 1.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
| Atletico Nacional | 1.9 | 0.8 | 6 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Internacional de Bogota sit 8th in Primera A (28 points from 19 matches) and Atletico Nacional sit 1st (40 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 35 | 15 | 40 |
| 1 | Atletico Nacional | 25 | 18 | 1 | 6 | 49 | 21 | 55 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 26 | 26 | 28 |
| 8 | Internacional de Bogota | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 | 35 | 28 |
| 11 | Atletico Nacional | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 14 | Internacional de Bogota | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 7 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional?
- The Footlab model makes Atletico Nacional the favourite at 45%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Internacional de Bogota.
- Where and when is Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional played?
- Internacional de Bogota vs Atletico Nacional is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Metropolitano de Techo, in the Primera A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.