Where and when is Deportes Tolima vs Chico played?

Deportes Tolima vs Chico is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, in the Primera A.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Deportes Tolima vs Chico: prediction and stats

Primera AClausura - 13Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, Ibagué

Deportes Tolima

Chico

The Footlab model makes Deportes Tolima the favourite at 66%, against 23% for a draw and 11% for Chico. The most likely score is 1-0.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Deportes Tolima vs Chico?

Deportes Tolima starts as the favourite with a 232-point Elo edge (1,814 vs 1,582).

Deportes Tolima win66 %

Draw23 %

Chico win11 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Deportes Tolima have 7 wins, 2 draws and 6 defeats; Chico have 4, 3 and 8.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Deportes Tolima
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Bucaramanga(home)	0-0	Primera A
Aug 19, 2026	Independiente del Valle(home)	0-1	CONMEBOL Libertadores
Aug 8, 2026	Internacional de Bogota(home)	2-1	Primera A
Aug 4, 2026	Independiente Medellin(home)	2-3	Primera A
Aug 1, 2026	Alianza Valledupar(away)	2-1	Primera A

Chico
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Jaguares(away)	0-1	Primera A
Aug 8, 2026	Santa Fe(away)	0-2	Primera A
Aug 2, 2026	America de Cali(away)	0-7	Primera A
May 27, 2026	Llaneros(home)	0-1	Copa Colombia
May 23, 2026	Millonarios(away)	2-2	Copa Colombia

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Deportes Tolima win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Chico win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Mar 23, 2026	Chico 1-1 Deportes Tolima	Primera A
Sep 15, 2025	Deportes Tolima 4-0 Chico	Primera A
Apr 2, 2025	Chico 1-4 Deportes Tolima	Primera A
Sep 15, 2024	Deportes Tolima 2-1 Chico	Primera A
Mar 1, 2024	Chico 1-1 Deportes Tolima	Primera A
Sep 30, 2023	Deportes Tolima 2-0 Chico	Primera A

Last archived meeting: Chico vs Deportes Tolima on Mar 23, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Deportes Tolima score 1.2 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Chico score 0.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 44% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Deportes Tolima	1.2	1.1	5	7/15	9/15
Chico	0.8	1.7	5	2/15	6/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Deportes Tolima sit 6th in Primera A (31 points from 19 matches) and Chico sit 18th (17 points from 19 matches).

2026 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
3	Deportes Tolima	5	3	1	1	8	6	10
3	Deportes Tolima	23	10	7	6	31	21	37
6	Deportes Tolima	19	8	7	4	27	17	31
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15	32	17
18	Chico	19	5	2	12	15	32	17
20	Chico	3	0	0	3	0	10	0

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Deportes Tolima vs Chico?: The Footlab model makes Deportes Tolima the favourite at 66%, against 23% for a draw and 11% for Chico.
Where and when is Deportes Tolima vs Chico played?: Deportes Tolima vs Chico is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro, in the Primera A.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 44% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.