Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe: prediction and stats
Primera AClausura - 13Kick-off on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellín
The Footlab model makes Independiente Medellin the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Santa Fe. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
A very open match: only 32 Elo points separate Independiente Medellin (1,821) and Santa Fe (1,854).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Independiente Medellin have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Santa Fe have 7, 7 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Cucuta(home) | 0-1 | Primera A |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Deportes Tolima(away) | 3-2 | Primera A |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Deportivo Cali(home) | 1-0 | Primera A |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Vasco DA Gama(away) | 0-1 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Deportivo Pasto(home) | 3-2 | Primera A |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | America de Cali(home) | 0-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 20, 2026 | River Plate(home) | 0-0 | CONMEBOL Sudamericana |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Chico(home) | 2-0 | Primera A |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Union Magdalena(home) | 2-0 | Copa Colombia |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Once Caldas(home) | 2-2 | Primera A |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Independiente Medellin win(s), 2 draw(s), 3 Santa Fe win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 23, 2026 | Santa Fe 2-1 Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
| Oct 21, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 1-1 Santa Fe | Primera A |
| Oct 2, 2025 | Santa Fe 0-3 Independiente Medellin | Copa Colombia |
| Sep 24, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 1-2 Santa Fe | Copa Colombia |
| Jun 29, 2025 | Independiente Medellin 1-2 Santa Fe | Primera A |
| Jun 25, 2025 | Santa Fe 0-0 Independiente Medellin | Primera A |
Last archived meeting: Santa Fe vs Independiente Medellin on Mar 23, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Independiente Medellin score 1.3 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Santa Fe score 1.5 and concede 0.5. The model gives a 39% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Independiente Medellin | 1.3 | 1.1 | 4 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Santa Fe | 1.5 | 0.5 | 9 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Independiente Medellin sit 11th in Primera A (26 points from 19 matches) and Santa Fe sit 7th (29 points from 19 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Independiente Medellin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Santa Fe | 23 | 8 | 11 | 4 | 35 | 24 | 35 |
| 7 | Santa Fe | 19 | 7 | 8 | 4 | 29 | 22 | 29 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 26 |
| 11 | Independiente Medellin | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 26 | 24 | 26 |
| 11 | Santa Fe | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe?
- The Footlab model makes Independiente Medellin the favourite at 39%, against 30% for a draw and 30% for Santa Fe.
- Where and when is Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe played?
- Independiente Medellin vs Santa Fe is played on October 4, 2026 at 08:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, in the Primera A.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 39% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
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