Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm: prediction and stats
Liga AlefNorth - 9Kick-off on October 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC)Baqa al-Gharbiyye Stadium, Baqa al-Gharbiyye
The Footlab model makes Ironi Baka El Garbiya the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm?
A very open match: only 45 Elo points separate Ironi Baka El Garbiya (1,702) and Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm (1,657).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ironi Baka El Garbiya have 5 wins, 3 draws and 7 defeats; Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Ironi Nesher(away) | 0-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Maccabi Ahi Nazareth(home) | 0-3 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm(away) | 0-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(home) | 4-1 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed(away) | 1-2 | Liga Alef |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 27, 2026 | Maccabi Neve Sha'anan(home) | 1-2 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 20, 2026 | Maccabi Nujeidat Ahmed(away) | 2-1 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 13, 2026 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya(home) | 1-0 | Liga Alef |
| Feb 6, 2026 | Hapoel Migdal HaEmek(away) | 1-3 | Liga Alef |
| Jan 30, 2026 | Hapoel Ironi Arraba(home) | 3-0 | Liga Alef |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Ironi Baka El Garbiya win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 13, 2026 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 1-0 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | Liga Alef |
| Oct 10, 2025 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya 2-1 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Jan 10, 2025 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya 0-0 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Apr 8, 2024 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya 7-2 Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | Liga Alef |
| Jan 19, 2024 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm 2-2 Ironi Baka El Garbiya | Liga Alef |
Last archived meeting: Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm vs Ironi Baka El Garbiya on Feb 13, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Ironi Baka El Garbiya score 1.4 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 1.4 | 1.5 | 2 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 1.1 | 1.3 | 3 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ironi Baka El Garbiya sit 9th in Liga Alef (31 points from 22 matches) and Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm sit 10th (30 points from 22 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Ironi Baka El Garbiya | 22 | 9 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 30 | 31 |
| 10 | Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm | 22 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 29 | 25 | 30 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm?
- The Footlab model makes Ironi Baka El Garbiya the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm.
- Where and when is Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm played?
- Ironi Baka El Garbiya vs Tzeirei Umm al-Fahm is played on October 31, 2026 at 01:00 PM (UTC) at Baqa al-Gharbiyye Stadium, in the Liga Alef.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 31, 2026Hapoel Nazareth IllitvsBeitar Nahariya
- Oct 31, 2026Hapoel Umm al-FahmvsMaccabi Nujeidat Ahmed
- Oct 31, 2026Ironi NeshervsHapoel Ironi Arraba
- Oct 31, 2026Hapoel Bnei MusmusvsHapoel Migdal HaEmek
- Oct 31, 2026Hapoel Tirat HaCarmelvsMaccabi K. Ata Bialik
- Oct 31, 2026Maccabi Neve Sha'ananvsHapoel Ihud Bnei Jatt
- Oct 31, 2026Hapoel Beit SheanvsTira
- Oct 31, 2026Tzeirey TamravsHapoel Ironi Karmiel