Thailand vs Japan: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 2Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Thammasat Stadium, Pathum Thani
The Footlab model makes Japan the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Thailand. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Thailand vs Japan?
Japan starts as the favourite with a 240-point Elo edge (1,861 vs 1,620).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Thailand have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Japan have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Vietnam(home) | 0-2 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Singapore(home) | 1-2 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Singapore(away) | 3-1 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Myanmar(home) | 2-0 | ASEAN Championship |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Philippines(away) | 1-0 | ASEAN Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 25, 2026 | Sweden(home) | 1-1 | World Cup |
| Jun 21, 2026 | Tunisia(away) | 4-0 | World Cup |
| Jun 14, 2026 | Netherlands(away) | 2-2 | World Cup |
| May 31, 2026 | Iceland(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | England(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Thailand win(s), 0 draw(s), 3 Japan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2024 | Japan 5-0 Thailand | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2017 | Japan 4-0 Thailand | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Sep 6, 2016 | Thailand 0-2 Japan | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
How many goals should we expect?
Thailand score 2.2 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Japan score 1.9 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 51% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thailand | 2.2 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
| Japan | 1.9 | 0.7 | 9 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thailand | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 15 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Thailand vs Japan?
- The Footlab model makes Japan the favourite at 48%, against 26% for a draw and 25% for Thailand.
- Where and when is Thailand vs Japan played?
- Thailand vs Japan is played on January 16, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Thammasat Stadium, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 51% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.