Thailand vs Japan: prediction and stats
Asian CupGroup Stage - 2Kick-off on January 16, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Thammasat Stadium, Pathum Thani
The Footlab AI model makes Japan the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Thailand. The most likely score is 1-1. If Japan wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,810 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Limited history for at least one of the two teams: read this prediction with caution.
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Thailand vs Japan?
Japan starts as the favourite with a 227-point Elo edge (1,854 vs 1,627).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Thailand vs Japan
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Thailand
4-4-2- 14T. Poeiphimai
- 9S. Chaided
- 15K. Kaman
- 6S. Yooyen
- 7K. Khamyok
- 18C. Songkrasin
- 4M. Bihr
- 2N. Sayriya
- 21S. Bureerat
- 12N. Mickelson
- 20S. Anuin
Japan
3-4-2-1- 18A. Ueda
- 10R. Dōan
- 24K. Sano
- 20T. Kubo
- 15D. Kamada
- 2S. Nakano
- 11D. Maeda
- 3A. Seko
- 21H. Ito
- 25J. Suzuki
- 1Z. Suzuki
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 05:43 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Thailand have 8 wins, 4 draws and 3 defeats; Japan have 10, 4 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | Indonesia(away) | 2-2 | FIFA Asean Cup |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Philippines(home) | 1-2 | FIFA Asean Cup |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Vietnam(home) | 2-0 | FIFA Asean Cup |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Pakistan(away) | 4-0 | FIFA Asean Cup |
| Aug 26, 2026 | Vietnam(away) | 2-2 | ASEAN Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 5, 2026 | New Zealand(home) | 2-1 | Kirin Cup |
| Oct 1, 2026 | Ecuador(home) | 0-0 | Kirin Cup |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Venezuela(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Sep 24, 2026 | Uruguay(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 29, 2026 | Brazil(away) | 1-2 | World Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 3 meetings: 0 Thailand wins, 0 draws, 3 Japan wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 1, 2024 | Japan 5-0 Thailand | Friendlies |
| Mar 28, 2017 | Japan 4-0 Thailand | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
| Sep 6, 2016 | Thailand 0-2 Japan | World Cup - Qualification Asia |
How many goals should we expect?
Thailand score 1.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Japan score 1.9 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thailand | 1.9 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Japan | 1.9 | 0.8 | 7 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Thailand | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 5 | 15 |
A question about Thailand vs Japan?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Thailand vs Japan?
- The Footlab AI model makes Japan the favourite at 51%, against 26% for a draw and 23% for Thailand.
- Where and when is Thailand vs Japan played?
- Thailand vs Japan is played on January 16, 2027 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Thammasat Stadium, in the Asian Cup.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.