Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ: prediction and stats
Eerste DivisieRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 23, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC)Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam-Duivendrecht
The Footlab model makes Jong AZ the favourite at 61%, against 19% for a draw and 20% for Jong Ajax. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Jong AZ starts as the favourite with a 156-point Elo edge (1,699 vs 1,543).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Jong Ajax have 4 wins, 1 draws and 10 defeats; Jong AZ have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | NAC Breda(away) | 2-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Emmen(home) | 4-6 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Dordrecht(away) | 1-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Jul 17, 2026 | Jong AZ(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Apr 24, 2026 | Jong Utrecht(home) | 0-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Emmen(away) | 1-3 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 17, 2026 | De Graafschap(away) | 5-2 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 10, 2026 | FC Eindhoven(home) | 0-1 | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Ijsselmeervogels(away) | 7-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Quick Boys(away) | 4-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Jong Ajax win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Jong AZ win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 17, 2026 | Jong AZ 3-0 Jong Ajax | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jan 12, 2026 | Jong AZ 1-2 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Aug 18, 2025 | Jong Ajax 4-1 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| Jan 13, 2025 | Jong AZ 2-1 Jong Ajax | Eerste Divisie |
| Sep 17, 2024 | Jong Ajax 1-2 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
| May 10, 2024 | Jong Ajax 1-4 Jong AZ | Eerste Divisie |
How many goals should we expect?
Jong Ajax score 1.5 and concede 2.3 goals per match over their last 15; Jong AZ score 2.3 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jong Ajax | 1.5 | 2.3 | 3 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
| Jong AZ | 2.3 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Jong Ajax sit 20th in Eerste Divisie (0 points from 3 matches) and Jong AZ sit 13th (3 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Jong AZ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 13 | Jong AZ | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 3 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
| 20 | Jong Ajax | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
- The Footlab model makes Jong AZ the favourite at 61%, against 19% for a draw and 20% for Jong Ajax.
- Where and when is Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ played?
- Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ is played on November 23, 2026 at 07:00 PM (UTC) at Sportpark De Toekomst, in the Eerste Divisie.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 74% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.