Kagera Sugar vs Geita Gold: prediction and stats
Ligi kuu BaraRegular Season - 21Kick-off on February 12, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Kaitaba Stadium, Bukoba
The Footlab model makes Kagera Sugar the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Geita Gold. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kagera Sugar vs Geita Gold?
A very open match: only 26 Elo points separate Kagera Sugar (1,448) and Geita Gold (1,473).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kagera Sugar have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Geita Gold have 3, 4 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold(away) | 2-6 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Singida Black Stars(home) | 1-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Simba(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 22, 2025 | Simba(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Jun 18, 2025 | Namungo(away) | 0-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kagera Sugar(home) | 6-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Namungo(away) | 0-1 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Mbeya City(away) | 1-0 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 28, 2024 | Azam(home) | 0-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 25, 2024 | Fountain Gate(away) | 1-2 | Ligi kuu Bara |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Kagera Sugar win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Geita Gold win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Geita Gold 6-2 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Feb 28, 2024 | Geita Gold 0-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Kagera Sugar 1-0 Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Dec 25, 2022 | Kagera Sugar 2-2 Geita Gold | Ligi kuu Bara |
| Sep 6, 2022 | Geita Gold 1-1 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
| May 7, 2022 | Geita Gold 1-0 Kagera Sugar | Ligi kuu Bara |
Last archived meeting: Geita Gold vs Kagera Sugar on Aug 22, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Kagera Sugar score 0.8 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Geita Gold score 0.9 and concede 1.4. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagera Sugar | 0.8 | 1.5 | 3 | 5/15 | 5/15 |
| Geita Gold | 0.9 | 1.4 | 4 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kagera Sugar sit 15th in Ligi kuu Bara (1 points from 3 matches) and Geita Gold sit 5th (6 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Geita Gold | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 6 |
| 15 | Kagera Sugar | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kagera Sugar vs Geita Gold?
- The Footlab model makes Kagera Sugar the favourite at 37%, against 29% for a draw and 35% for Geita Gold.
- Where and when is Kagera Sugar vs Geita Gold played?
- Kagera Sugar vs Geita Gold is played on February 12, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Kaitaba Stadium, in the Ligi kuu Bara.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.