Kagoshima United vs Fukushima United: prediction and stats
J3 LeagueRegular Season - 9Kick-off on October 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC)Shiranami Stadium, Kagoshima
The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Fukushima United. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Kagoshima United vs Fukushima United?
Kagoshima United starts as the favourite with a 141-point Elo edge (1,814 vs 1,673).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kagoshima United have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Fukushima United have 4, 3 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Albirex Niigata(away) | 4-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | FC Gifu(home) | 0-0 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Renofa Yamaguchi(home) | 2-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nara Club(away) | 3-1 | J3 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Thespakusatsu Gunma(home) | 1-0 | J3 League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 26, 2026 | Yokohama F. Marinos(away) | 0-1 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Gainare Tottori(away) | 1-2 | J3 League |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Oyama(home) | 7-0 | Emperor Cup |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Kanazawa(away) | 3-4 | J3 League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Kamatamare Sanuki(home) | 1-2 | J3 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Kagoshima United win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Fukushima United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Aug 30, 2025 | Fukushima United 2-2 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
| May 17, 2025 | Kagoshima United 5-0 Fukushima United | J3 League |
| Oct 29, 2023 | Fukushima United 0-1 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
| Jul 9, 2023 | Kagoshima United 3-1 Fukushima United | J3 League |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Fukushima United 1-1 Kagoshima United | J3 League |
| Jul 9, 2022 | Kagoshima United 2-1 Fukushima United | J3 League |
Last archived meeting: Fukushima United vs Kagoshima United on Aug 30, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Kagoshima United score 1.5 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Fukushima United score 1.8 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagoshima United | 1.5 | 0.7 | 5 | 7/15 | 6/15 |
| Fukushima United | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Kagoshima United sit 4th in J3 League (7 points from 3 matches) and Fukushima United sit 19th (0 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Kagoshima United | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 19 | Fukushima United | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 8 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Kagoshima United vs Fukushima United?
- The Footlab model makes Kagoshima United the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Fukushima United.
- Where and when is Kagoshima United vs Fukushima United played?
- Kagoshima United vs Fukushima United is played on October 3, 2026 at 10:00 AM (UTC) at Shiranami Stadium, in the J3 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.