Where and when is Kalisz vs Polonia Środa played?

Kalisz vs Polonia Środa is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion OSRiR, in the III Liga - Group 2.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Kalisz vs Polonia Środa: prediction and stats

III Liga - Group 2Group II - 14Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion OSRiR, Kalisz

Kalisz

Polonia Środa

The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Kalisz. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Kalisz vs Polonia Środa?

Polonia Środa starts as the favourite with a 157-point Elo edge (1,872 vs 1,716).

Kalisz win25 %

Draw23 %

Polonia Środa win52 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Kalisz have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Polonia Środa have 9, 1 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Kalisz
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 23, 2026	Bałtyk Koszalin(away)	1-1	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 19, 2026	Noteć Czarnków(home)	0-1	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 15, 2026	Kotwica Kórnik(away)	2-2	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 9, 2026	Unia Swarzędz(home)	1-0	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 5, 2026	Górnik Łęczna(away)	0-2	Cup

Polonia Środa
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 22, 2026	Lipno Stęszew(away)	3-2	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 19, 2026	Stargard Szczeciński(home)	4-1	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 14, 2026	Chemik Bydgoszcz(away)	4-1	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 7, 2026	Victoria Września(home)	1-0	III Liga - Group 2
Aug 1, 2026	Bałtyk Koszalin(away)	3-0	III Liga - Group 2

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Kalisz win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Polonia Środa win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 17, 2023	Kalisz 3-4 Polonia Środa	Friendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Kalisz vs Polonia Środa on Feb 17, 2023

How many goals should we expect?

Kalisz score 0.9 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Polonia Środa score 1.9 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Kalisz	0.9	1.7	3	7/15	7/15
Polonia Środa	1.9	1.2	4	8/15	11/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Kalisz sit 8th in III Liga - Group 2 (8 points from 5 matches) and Polonia Środa sit 1st (15 points from 5 matches).

2026-27 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Polonia Środa	5	5	0	0	15	4	15
8	Kalisz	5	2	2	1	5	4	8

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Kalisz vs Polonia Środa?: The Footlab model makes Polonia Środa the favourite at 52%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Kalisz.
Where and when is Kalisz vs Polonia Środa played?: Kalisz vs Polonia Środa is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion OSRiR, in the III Liga - Group 2.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.