Cerezo Osaka vs Mito Hollyhock: prediction and stats
J1 LeagueRegular Season - 18Kick-off on December 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC)Yodoko Sakura Stadium, Osaka
The Footlab model makes Cerezo Osaka the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Mito Hollyhock. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Cerezo Osaka vs Mito Hollyhock?
Cerezo Osaka starts as the favourite with a 188-point Elo edge (2,017 vs 1,829).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Cerezo Osaka have 9 wins, 4 draws and 2 defeats; Mito Hollyhock have 2, 5 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Shimizu S-pulse(home) | 1-0 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Avispa Fukuoka(away) | 0-3 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Fagiano Okayama(home) | 2-1 | J1 League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Borussia Dortmund(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 15, 2026 | Tochigi City(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Kyoto Sanga(away) | 3-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Gamba Osaka(home) | 1-1 | J1 League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Kashiwa Reysol(away) | 1-2 | J1 League |
| Jun 6, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(home) | 0-1 | J1 League |
| May 30, 2026 | V-varen Nagasaki(away) | 0-1 | J1 League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 1 Cerezo Osaka win(s), 3 draw(s), 0 Mito Hollyhock win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 30, 2016 | Cerezo Osaka 2-2 Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
| Mar 6, 2016 | Mito Hollyhock 0-1 Cerezo Osaka | J2 League |
| Sep 23, 2015 | Cerezo Osaka 2-2 Mito Hollyhock | J2 League |
| Jun 14, 2015 | Mito Hollyhock 1-1 Cerezo Osaka | J2 League |
Last archived meeting: Cerezo Osaka vs Mito Hollyhock on Oct 30, 2016
How many goals should we expect?
Cerezo Osaka score 1.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Mito Hollyhock score 1.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cerezo Osaka | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Mito Hollyhock | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Cerezo Osaka sit 6th in J1 League (6 points from 3 matches) and Mito Hollyhock sit 7th (4 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Cerezo Osaka | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 6 |
| 7 | Mito Hollyhock | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Cerezo Osaka vs Mito Hollyhock?
- The Footlab model makes Cerezo Osaka the favourite at 55%, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Mito Hollyhock.
- Where and when is Cerezo Osaka vs Mito Hollyhock played?
- Cerezo Osaka vs Mito Hollyhock is played on December 5, 2026 at 11:00 AM (UTC) at Yodoko Sakura Stadium, in the J1 League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 4, 2026FC TokyovsKawasaki Frontale
- Dec 5, 2026Kashiwa ReysolvsAvispa Fukuoka
- Dec 5, 2026Sanfrecce HiroshimavsVissel Kobe
- Dec 5, 2026V-varen NagasakivsShimizu S-pulse
- Dec 5, 2026UrawavsNagoya Grampus
- Dec 5, 2026Gamba OsakavsYokohama F. Marinos
- Dec 5, 2026JEF United ChibavsKashima
- Dec 5, 2026Machida ZelviavsFagiano Okayama