Le Mans vs Lens: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Marie-Marvingt, Le Mans
The Footlab model makes Lens the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Le Mans. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Le Mans vs Lens?
Lens starts as the favourite with a 244-point Elo edge (2,181 vs 1,937).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Le Mans have 7 wins, 6 draws and 2 defeats; Lens have 9, 4 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Stade Brestois 29(home) | 2-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Le Havre(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Saumur(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | UNFP(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Angers(away) | 3-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Auxerre(home) | 5-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain(home) | 1-0 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sunderland(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Villarreal(home) | 3-1 | Como Cup |
| Jul 28, 2026 | Famalicao(home) | 0-0 | Como Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 5 meetings: 2 Le Mans win(s), 1 draw(s), 2 Lens win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jul 27, 2019 | Le Mans 1-2 Lens | Ligue 2 |
| May 24, 2013 | Le Mans 2-1 Lens | Ligue 2 |
| Jul 28, 2012 | Lens 2-2 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Apr 6, 2012 | Lens 1-3 Le Mans | Ligue 2 |
| Nov 26, 2011 | Le Mans 0-1 Lens | Ligue 2 |
How many goals should we expect?
Le Mans score 1.7 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Lens score 2.3 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le Mans | 1.7 | 1.0 | 6 | 8/15 | 6/15 |
| Lens | 2.3 | 1.1 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Le Mans sit 5th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and Lens sit 2nd (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Lens | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 |
| 5 | Le Mans | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Le Mans vs Lens?
- The Footlab model makes Lens the favourite at 49%, against 25% for a draw and 26% for Le Mans.
- Where and when is Le Mans vs Lens played?
- Le Mans vs Lens is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Marie-Marvingt, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.