Lorient vs Toulouse: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Lorient
The Footlab model makes Lorient the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Toulouse. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lorient vs Toulouse?
A very open match: only 36 Elo points separate Lorient (2,009) and Toulouse (1,974).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lorient have 6 wins, 3 draws and 6 defeats; Toulouse have 5, 3 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nice(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | SV Elversberg(away) | 1-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Angers(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | UNFP(home) | 5-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Guingamp(away) | 2-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 0-2 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hamburger SV(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Rodez(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 10, 2026 | Lyon(home) | 2-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Lorient win(s), 3 draw(s), 3 Toulouse win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 21, 2026 | Toulouse 1-0 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Lorient 1-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 28, 2024 | Lorient 1-2 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Toulouse 1-1 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
| Apr 23, 2023 | Lorient 0-1 Toulouse | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 21, 2022 | Toulouse 2-2 Lorient | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lorient score 1.5 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Toulouse score 1.4 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 50% probability of over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lorient | 1.5 | 1.3 | 5 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Toulouse | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1 | 11/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lorient sit 6th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and Toulouse sit 16th (0 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Lorient | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 16 | Toulouse | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lorient vs Toulouse?
- The Footlab model makes Lorient the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 26% for Toulouse.
- Where and when is Lorient vs Toulouse played?
- Lorient vs Toulouse is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 50% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.