Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Francis-Le Blé, Brest
The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Stade Brestois 29. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 22, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
Paris Saint Germain is a heavy favourite: 2,300 Elo points against 1,939 — a 361-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Stade Brestois 29 have 1 wins, 6 draws and 8 defeats; Paris Saint Germain have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Nottingham Forest(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Venezia(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Stade Briochin(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Guingamp(home) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 22, 2026 | Al Wakrah(home) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lens(away) | 0-1 | Trophée des Champions |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 2-1 | UEFA Super Cup |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 30, 2026 | Arsenal(home) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Stade Brestois 29 win(s), 0 draw(s), 6 Paris Saint Germain win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Paris Saint Germain 1-0 Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 0-3 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 19, 2025 | Paris Saint Germain 7-0 Stade Brestois 29 | UEFA Champions League |
| Feb 11, 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 0-3 Paris Saint Germain | UEFA Champions League |
| Feb 1, 2025 | Stade Brestois 29 2-5 Paris Saint Germain | Ligue 1 |
| Sep 14, 2024 | Paris Saint Germain 3-1 Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 |
Last archived meeting: Paris Saint Germain vs Stade Brestois 29 on May 10, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Stade Brestois 29 score 1.2 and concede 2.2 goals per match over their last 15; Paris Saint Germain score 1.7 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Brestois 29 | 1.2 | 2.2 | 0 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Paris Saint Germain | 1.7 | 1.2 | 5 | 8/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Stade Brestois 29 sit 12th in Ligue 1 (39 points from 34 matches) and Paris Saint Germain sit 1st (76 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paris Saint Germain | 34 | 24 | 4 | 6 | 74 | 29 | 76 |
| 12 | Stade Brestois 29 | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 43 | 55 | 39 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain?
- The Footlab model makes Paris Saint Germain the favourite at 61%, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Stade Brestois 29.
- Where and when is Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain played?
- Stade Brestois 29 vs Paris Saint Germain is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Francis-Le Blé, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.