Paris FC vs Lyon: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade Jean Bouin, Paris
The Footlab model makes Lyon the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Paris FC. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Paris FC vs Lyon?
Lyon starts as the favourite with a 116-point Elo edge (2,129 vs 2,013).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Paris FC have 6 wins, 5 draws and 4 defeats; Lyon have 9, 1 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Estac Troyes(away) | 0-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Angers(away) | 2-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | FSV Mainz 05(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | VfB Stuttgart(away) | 2-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Reims(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Toulouse(away) | 2-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(away) | 1-1 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Sparta Praha(home) | 3-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Sparta Praha(away) | 1-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Jul 29, 2026 | Real Betis(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 0 Paris FC win(s), 2 draw(s), 0 Lyon win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2026 | Lyon 1-1 Paris FC | Ligue 1 |
| Oct 29, 2025 | Paris FC 3-3 Lyon | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Paris FC score 1.6 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Lyon score 2.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 56% probability of over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paris FC | 1.6 | 1.3 | 4 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
| Lyon | 2.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Paris FC sit 8th in Ligue 1 (1 points from 1 matches) and Lyon sit 4th (3 points from 1 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Lyon | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Paris FC | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Paris FC vs Lyon?
- The Footlab model makes Lyon the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Paris FC.
- Where and when is Paris FC vs Lyon played?
- Paris FC vs Lyon is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Jean Bouin, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 56% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.