Auxerre vs Nice: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Auxerre
The Footlab model makes Auxerre the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Nice. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 19, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Auxerre vs Nice?
A very open match: only 6 Elo points separate Auxerre (1,950) and Nice (1,945).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Auxerre have 6 wins, 6 draws and 3 defeats; Nice have 3, 8 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Werder Bremen(away) | 1-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Estac Troyes(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Sochaux(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Orleans(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | St Maur Lusitanos(home) | 5-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Cagliari(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Juventus(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 18, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 4-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 29, 2026 | Saint Etienne(home) | 4-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Auxerre win(s), 3 draw(s), 1 Nice win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 10, 2026 | Auxerre 2-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 23, 2025 | Nice 3-1 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 14, 2025 | Nice 1-1 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 18, 2024 | Auxerre 2-1 Nice | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 6, 2024 | Nice 0-0 Auxerre | Coupe de France |
| Mar 3, 2023 | Nice 1-1 Auxerre | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Auxerre score 1.6 and concede 1.0 goals per match over their last 15; Nice score 1.1 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 48% probability of over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auxerre | 1.6 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 7/15 |
| Nice | 1.1 | 0.9 | 7 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Auxerre sit 15th in Ligue 1 (34 points from 34 matches) and Nice sit 16th (32 points from 34 matches).
The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Auxerre | 34 | 8 | 10 | 16 | 34 | 44 | 34 |
| 16 | Nice | 34 | 7 | 11 | 16 | 37 | 60 | 32 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Auxerre vs Nice?
- The Footlab model makes Auxerre the favourite at 42%, against 28% for a draw and 31% for Nice.
- Where and when is Auxerre vs Nice played?
- Auxerre vs Nice is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 48% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.