Rennes vs Marseille: prediction and stats
Ligue 1Regular Season - 4Kick-off on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Roazhon Park, Rennes
The Footlab model makes Marseille the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Rennes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 23, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Rennes vs Marseille?
A very open match: only 61 Elo points separate Rennes (2,027) and Marseille (2,088).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Rennes have 7 wins, 1 draws and 7 defeats; Marseille have 8, 2 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-4 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Brentford U21(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Galatasaray(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Club Brugge KV(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 4-0 | Ligue 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Athletic Club(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Nimes(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| May 17, 2026 | Rennes(home) | 3-1 | Ligue 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Rennes win(s), 0 draw(s), 4 Marseille win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2026 | Marseille 3-1 Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| Feb 3, 2026 | Marseille 3-0 Rennes | Coupe de France |
| Aug 15, 2025 | Rennes 1-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| May 17, 2025 | Marseille 4-2 Rennes | Ligue 1 |
| Jan 11, 2025 | Rennes 1-2 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Rennes 2-0 Marseille | Ligue 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Rennes score 1.9 and concede 2.5 goals per match over their last 15; Marseille score 1.6 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 69% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rennes | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1 | 13/15 | 15/15 |
| Marseille | 1.6 | 1.2 | 4 | 9/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marseille | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Rennes vs Marseille?
- The Footlab model makes Marseille the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Rennes.
- Where and when is Rennes vs Marseille played?
- Rennes vs Marseille is played on September 12, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Roazhon Park, in the Ligue 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 69% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.