Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 9Kick-off on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, Gdańsk
The Footlab model makes Lechia Gdansk the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Stal Mielec. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
A very open match: only 29 Elo points separate Lechia Gdansk (1,848) and Stal Mielec (1,819).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lechia Gdansk have 3 wins, 2 draws and 10 defeats; Stal Mielec have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Pogoń Siedlce(home) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Ruch Chorzów(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Podbeskidzie(away) | 2-2 | I Liga |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Warta Poznań(home) | 0-3 | I Liga |
| Jul 25, 2026 | Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki(home) | 0-3 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź(away) | 0-4 | I Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Polonia Bytom(home) | 5-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Podbeskidzie(home) | 3-3 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(away) | 2-1 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lechia Gdansk win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Stal Mielec win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 14, 2025 | Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Stal Mielec | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 5, 2024 | Stal Mielec 2-1 Lechia Gdansk | Ekstraklasa |
| May 14, 2023 | Stal Mielec 0-0 Lechia Gdansk | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 30, 2022 | Lechia Gdansk 1-0 Stal Mielec | Ekstraklasa |
| May 8, 2022 | Lechia Gdansk 3-2 Stal Mielec | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 20, 2021 | Stal Mielec 3-3 Lechia Gdansk | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec on Apr 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Lechia Gdansk score 1.1 and concede 2.1 goals per match over their last 15; Stal Mielec score 2.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia Gdansk | 1.1 | 2.1 | 1 | 9/15 | 11/15 |
| Stal Mielec | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lechia Gdansk sit 16th in I Liga (4 points from 5 matches) and Stal Mielec sit 7th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Stal Mielec | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
| 16 | Lechia Gdansk | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec?
- The Footlab model makes Lechia Gdansk the favourite at 45%, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Stal Mielec.
- Where and when is Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec played?
- Lechia Gdansk vs Stal Mielec is played on September 19, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 58% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 19, 2026Miedz LegnicavsStal Rzeszów
- Sep 19, 2026NiecieczavsOdra Opole
- Sep 19, 2026PodbeskidzievsUnia Skierniewice
- Sep 19, 2026Warta PoznańvsPuszcza Niepołomice
- Sep 19, 2026Pogoń SiedlcevsArka Gdynia
- Sep 19, 2026Polonia BytomvsRuch Chorzów
- Sep 19, 2026Pogoń Grod. MazowieckivsŁKS Łódź
- Sep 19, 2026Polonia WarszawavsChrobry Głogów