Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec: prediction and stats
I LigaRegular Season - 15Kick-off on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, Warszawa
The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Stal Mielec. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
A very open match: only 65 Elo points separate Polonia Warszawa (1,886) and Stal Mielec (1,821).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Polonia Warszawa have 6 wins, 1 draws and 8 defeats; Stal Mielec have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Nieciecza(away) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Pogoń Siedlce(away) | 0-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Ruch Chorzów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(home) | 3-1 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Puszcza Niepołomice(away) | 1-0 | I Liga |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź(away) | 0-4 | I Liga |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Polonia Bytom(home) | 5-2 | I Liga |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Stal Rzeszów(home) | 1-1 | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Podbeskidzie(home) | 3-3 | I Liga |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Unia Skierniewice(away) | 2-1 | I Liga |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Polonia Warszawa win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Stal Mielec win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2026 | Polonia Warszawa 5-2 Stal Mielec | I Liga |
| Aug 2, 2025 | Stal Mielec 1-3 Polonia Warszawa | I Liga |
Last archived meeting: Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec on Feb 8, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Polonia Warszawa score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Stal Mielec score 2.1 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polonia Warszawa | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
| Stal Mielec | 2.1 | 1.9 | 0 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Polonia Warszawa sit 4th in I Liga (10 points from 5 matches) and Stal Mielec sit 7th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Polonia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 10 |
| 7 | Stal Mielec | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 11 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec?
- The Footlab model makes Polonia Warszawa the favourite at 51%, against 24% for a draw and 25% for Stal Mielec.
- Where and when is Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec played?
- Polonia Warszawa vs Stal Mielec is played on November 21, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Polonii im. generała Kazimierza Sosnkowskiego, in the I Liga.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 21, 2026Miedz LegnicavsŁKS Łódź
- Nov 21, 2026Lechia GdanskvsOdra Opole
- Nov 21, 2026Chrobry GłogówvsPuszcza Niepołomice
- Nov 21, 2026PodbeskidzievsNieciecza
- Nov 21, 2026Ruch ChorzówvsWarta Poznań
- Nov 21, 2026Stal RzeszówvsPolonia Bytom
- Nov 21, 2026Unia SkierniewicevsPogoń Siedlce
- Nov 21, 2026Pogoń Grod. MazowieckivsArka Gdynia