Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Jagiellonia II: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 23Kick-off on March 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion im. Braci Gadajów, Tomaszów Mazowiecki
The Footlab model makes Lechia T. Mazowiecki the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Jagiellonia II. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Jagiellonia II?
A very open match: only 16 Elo points separate Lechia T. Mazowiecki (1,758) and Jagiellonia II (1,775).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lechia T. Mazowiecki have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Jagiellonia II have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź II(home) | 4-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Mławianka Mława(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Łomża(home) | 5-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wisła Płock II(away) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 0-4 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Pelikan Łowicz(home) | 3-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Warta Sieradz(away) | 2-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Wigry Suwałki(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lechia T. Mazowiecki win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Jagiellonia II win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 2025 | Jagiellonia II 2-3 Lechia T. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2025 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1-1 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Apr 5, 2025 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki 3-1 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Sep 7, 2024 | Jagiellonia II 3-1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 |
| May 15, 2024 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki 7-0 Jagiellonia II | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Oct 21, 2023 | Jagiellonia II 1-1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Jagiellonia II vs Lechia T. Mazowiecki on Nov 29, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Lechia T. Mazowiecki score 2.0 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Jagiellonia II score 1.6 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Jagiellonia II | 1.6 | 1.7 | 3 | 9/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lechia T. Mazowiecki sit 5th in III Liga - Group 1 (9 points from 5 matches) and Jagiellonia II sit 10th (8 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 9 |
| 10 | Jagiellonia II | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Jagiellonia II?
- The Footlab model makes Lechia T. Mazowiecki the favourite at 41%, against 23% for a draw and 35% for Jagiellonia II.
- Where and when is Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Jagiellonia II played?
- Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Jagiellonia II is played on March 20, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion im. Braci Gadajów, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 20, 2027Wigry SuwałkivsOlimpia Elbląg
- Mar 20, 2027Pelikan ŁowiczvsZąbkovia Ząbki
- Mar 20, 2027Mławianka MławavsWisła Płock II
- Mar 20, 2027Warta SieradzvsSwit
- Mar 20, 2027ŁomżavsŁKS Łódź II
- Mar 20, 2027Widzew IIvsOlimpia Zambrów
- Mar 20, 2027Mazovia Minsk MazowieckivsPolonia Lidzbark Warm.
- Mar 20, 2027WeszlovsTroszyn