Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Łowicz: prediction and stats
III Liga - Group 1Group I - 17Kick-off on November 14, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Stadion im. Braci Gadajów, Tomaszów Mazowiecki
The Footlab model makes Lechia T. Mazowiecki the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Pelikan Łowicz. The most likely score is 2-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Łowicz?
Lechia T. Mazowiecki starts as the favourite with a 105-point Elo edge (1,758 vs 1,654).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lechia T. Mazowiecki have 7 wins, 3 draws and 5 defeats; Pelikan Łowicz have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź II(home) | 4-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Mławianka Mława(away) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Łomża(home) | 5-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Wisła Płock II(away) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Jul 31, 2026 | Weszlo(away) | 1-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Troszyn(home) | 1-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 19, 2026 | Jagiellonia II(away) | 0-3 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 15, 2026 | ŁKS Łódź II(home) | 2-1 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Mławianka Mława(away) | 1-0 | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Łomża(home) | 3-2 | III Liga - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Lechia T. Mazowiecki win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Pelikan Łowicz win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 8, 2025 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki 6-1 Pelikan Łowicz | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 17, 2024 | Pelikan Łowicz 1-2 Lechia T. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Mar 17, 2024 | Pelikan Łowicz 0-0 Lechia T. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Aug 23, 2023 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki 1-0 Pelikan Łowicz | III Liga - Group 1 |
| May 24, 2023 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki 0-2 Pelikan Łowicz | III Liga - Group 1 |
| Oct 23, 2022 | Pelikan Łowicz 1-1 Lechia T. Mazowiecki | III Liga - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Łowicz on Mar 8, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Lechia T. Mazowiecki score 2.0 and concede 1.9 goals per match over their last 15; Pelikan Łowicz score 1.1 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 71% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 2.0 | 1.9 | 2 | 13/15 | 12/15 |
| Pelikan Łowicz | 1.1 | 1.7 | 2 | 10/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lechia T. Mazowiecki sit 5th in III Liga - Group 1 (9 points from 5 matches) and Pelikan Łowicz sit 4th (10 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Pelikan Łowicz | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 11 | 9 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Łowicz?
- The Footlab model makes Lechia T. Mazowiecki the favourite at 60%, against 20% for a draw and 20% for Pelikan Łowicz.
- Where and when is Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Łowicz played?
- Lechia T. Mazowiecki vs Pelikan Łowicz is played on November 14, 2026 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion im. Braci Gadajów, in the III Liga - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 71% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Nov 14, 2026SwitvsOlimpia Elbląg
- Nov 14, 2026Jagiellonia IIvsWidzew II
- Nov 14, 2026ŁKS Łódź IIvsMazovia Minsk Mazowiecki
- Nov 14, 2026Mławianka MławavsWigry Suwałki
- Nov 14, 2026ŁomżavsWarta Sieradz
- Nov 14, 2026TroszynvsOlimpia Zambrów
- Nov 14, 2026Ząbkovia ZąbkivsPolonia Lidzbark Warm.
- Nov 14, 2026WeszlovsWisła Płock II