Leeds vs Everton: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Elland Road, Leeds, West Yorkshire
The Footlab AI model makes Leeds the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Everton. The most likely score is 1-1. If Leeds wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,366 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leeds vs Everton?
A very open match: only 47 Elo points separate Leeds (2,255) and Everton (2,208).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Leeds vs Everton
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Leeds
3-4-2-1- 9D. Calvert-Lewin
- 4E. Ampadu
- 2J. Bogle
- 18A. Stach
- 19N. Okafor
- 22A. Tanaka
- 3G. Gudmundsson
- 5T. Muharemović
- 24J. Justin
- 30N. Elvedi
- 1J. Trafford
Everton
4-2-3-1- 11T. Barry
- 8K. Dewsbury-Hall
- 37J. Garner
- 45H. Armstrong
- 22B. Johnson
- 10J. Grealish
- 6J. Tarkowski
- 4J. Branthwaite
- 2A. Maitland-Niles
- 5M. Keane
- 1J. Pickford
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 03:46 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leeds have 7 wins, 4 draws and 4 defeats; Everton have 7, 6 and 2.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Arsenal(away) | 1-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Newcastle(home) | 4-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 3-6 | League Cup |
| Sep 5, 2026 | Brighton(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 11, 2026 | Hull City(away) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Ipswich(home) | 1-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Wolves(home) | 1-0 | League Cup |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 0-0 | Premier League |
| Sep 6, 2026 | Manchester United(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Leeds win, 3 draws, 2 Everton wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | Everton 1-1 Leeds | Premier League |
| Aug 18, 2025 | Leeds 1-0 Everton | Premier League |
| Feb 18, 2023 | Everton 1-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| Aug 30, 2022 | Leeds 1-1 Everton | Premier League |
| Feb 12, 2022 | Everton 3-0 Leeds | Premier League |
| Aug 21, 2021 | Leeds 2-2 Everton | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Leeds score 1.8 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Everton score 1.6 and concede 0.8. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds | 1.8 | 1.3 | 6 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Everton | 1.6 | 0.8 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leeds sit 7th in Premier League (9 points from 6 matches) and Everton sit 5th (10 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
A question about Leeds vs Everton?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leeds vs Everton?
- The Footlab AI model makes Leeds the favourite at 41%, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Everton.
- Where and when is Leeds vs Everton played?
- Leeds vs Everton is played on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Elland Road, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.