Bournemouth vs Aston Villa: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Dorset
The Footlab AI model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Aston Villa. The most likely score is 1-1. If Bournemouth wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.6% of the 2,402 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 14, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
A very open match: only 34 Elo points separate Bournemouth (2,208) and Aston Villa (2,242).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Bournemouth
4-2-3-1- 9Evanilson
- 16M. Tavernier
- 37Rayan
- 12T. Adams
- 10R. Christie
- 7D. Brooks
- 5J. Hill
- 14António Silva
- 15A. Smith
- 3A. Truffert
- 1Đ. Petrović
Aston Villa
4-2-3-1- 11N. Jackson
- 8B. Kamara
- 7J. McGinn
- 10E. Buendía
- 44J. Manzambi
- 35João Gomes
- 3V. Lindelöf
- 5T. Mings
- 2M. Cash
- 13M. Ruggeri
- 1Z. Suzuki
Computed on October 14, 2026 at 08:52 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Bournemouth have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Aston Villa have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Chelsea(away) | 1-5 | Premier League |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 17, 2026 | Real Sociedad(away) | 2-1 | UEFA Europa League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Lincoln(home) | 4-0 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2026 | Fenerbahçe(home) | 6-0 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Brentford(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Sevilla(away) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tottenham(away) | 3-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 16, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 3-1 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 0 Bournemouth wins, 3 draws, 3 Aston Villa wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2026 | Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Nov 9, 2025 | Aston Villa 4-0 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| May 10, 2025 | Bournemouth 0-1 Aston Villa | Premier League |
| Oct 26, 2024 | Aston Villa 1-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Apr 21, 2024 | Aston Villa 3-1 Bournemouth | Premier League |
| Dec 3, 2023 | Bournemouth 2-2 Aston Villa | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Bournemouth vs Aston Villa on Feb 7, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Bournemouth score 2.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Aston Villa score 1.9 and concede 1.7. The model gives a 60% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 2.5 | 1.6 | 1 | 13/15 | 11/15 |
| Aston Villa | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2 | 11/15 | 13/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Bournemouth sit 18th in Premier League (3 points from 6 matches) and Aston Villa sit 16th (5 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 5 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 3 |
A question about Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Bournemouth vs Aston Villa?
- The Footlab AI model makes Bournemouth the favourite at 46%, against 25% for a draw and 29% for Aston Villa.
- Where and when is Bournemouth vs Aston Villa played?
- Bournemouth vs Aston Villa is played on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Vitality Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 60% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.6% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.