Brighton vs Manchester United: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The American Express Community Stadium, Falmer, East Sussex
The Footlab AI model makes Brighton the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Manchester United. The most likely score is 1-1. If Brighton wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 53.7% of the 3,746 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 28, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Brighton vs Manchester United?
On Elo ratings, Brighton has 2,357 points and Manchester United 2,264.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Brighton vs Manchester United
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Brighton
4-2-3-1- 19C. Kostoulas
- 13P. Groß
- 29M. De Cuyper
- 25D. Gómez
- 26Y. Ayari
- 14José María Andrés Baixauli
- 21O. Boscagli
- 44L. Vušković
- 24F. Kadıoğlu
- 5L. Dunk
- 1B. Verbruggen
Manchester United
4-2-3-1- 19B. Mbeumo
- 18Y. Tielemans
- 17Andrey Santos
- 16A. Diallo
- 20C. Baleba
- 7M. Mount
- 5H. Maguire
- 2Diogo Dalot
- 15L. Yoro
- 26A. Heaven
- 1S. Lammens
Computed on October 28, 2026 at 05:45 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Brighton have 10 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats; Manchester United have 2, 6 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Liverpool(away) | 0-2 | Premier League |
| Oct 22, 2026 | FK Jablonec(away) | 0-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Crystal Palace(home) | 5-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 15, 2026 | Kauno Žalgiris(home) | 4-0 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Sunderland(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 25, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Oct 21, 2026 | Como(away) | 1-4 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 18, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 1-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 13, 2026 | Atletico Madrid(away) | 0-2 | UEFA Champions League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 1-1 | Premier League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 4 Brighton wins, 0 draws, 2 Manchester United wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 16, 2026 | Manchester United 2-3 Brighton | League Cup |
| May 24, 2026 | Brighton 0-3 Manchester United | Premier League |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Manchester United 1-2 Brighton | FA Cup |
| Oct 25, 2025 | Manchester United 4-2 Brighton | Premier League |
| Jan 19, 2025 | Manchester United 1-3 Brighton | Premier League |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Brighton 2-1 Manchester United | Premier League |
Last archived meeting: Manchester United vs Brighton on Sep 16, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Brighton score 2.5 and concede 0.6 goals per match over their last 15; Manchester United score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 57% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton | 2.5 | 0.6 | 11 | 3/15 | 9/15 |
| Manchester United | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1 | 10/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Brighton sit 3rd in Premier League (16 points from 8 matches) and Manchester United sit 16th (7 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Brighton | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 7 | 16 |
| 16 | Manchester United | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 13 | 7 |
A question about Brighton vs Manchester United?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Brighton vs Manchester United?
- The Footlab AI model makes Brighton the favourite at 58%, against 23% for a draw and 19% for Manchester United.
- Where and when is Brighton vs Manchester United played?
- Brighton vs Manchester United is played on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The American Express Community Stadium, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 57% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 53.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.