Chelsea vs Newcastle: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stamford Bridge, London
The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelsea vs Newcastle?
A very open match: only 13 Elo points separate Chelsea (2,166) and Newcastle (2,152).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelsea have 5 wins, 2 draws and 8 defeats; Newcastle have 4, 4 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 15, 2026 | Real Sociedad(home) | 3-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Johor Darul Takzim FC(away) | 3-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | AC Milan(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Juventus(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Tottenham(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Liverpool(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Strasbourg(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Bayer Leverkusen(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 12, 2026 | Everton(home) | 1-3 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Valencia(away) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chelsea win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Newcastle win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Chelsea 0-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Newcastle 2-2 Chelsea | Premier League |
| May 11, 2025 | Newcastle 2-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Newcastle 2-0 Chelsea | League Cup |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Chelsea 2-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Mar 11, 2024 | Chelsea 3-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Chelsea score 1.5 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle score 1.4 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 63% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 1.5 | 1.7 | 2 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Newcastle | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Newcastle?
- The Footlab model makes Chelsea the favourite at 53%, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Chelsea vs Newcastle played?
- Chelsea vs Newcastle is played on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stamford Bridge, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 63% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.