Chelsea vs Newcastle: prediction and stats
Premier LeagueRegular Season - 19Kick-off on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stamford Bridge, London
The Footlab AI model makes Chelsea the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Newcastle. The most likely score is 1-1. If Chelsea wins, the most likely score is 2-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.3% of the 2,899 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 21, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Chelsea vs Newcastle?
On Elo ratings, Chelsea has 2,258 points and Newcastle 2,181.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Chelsea vs Newcastle
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Chelsea
4-2-3-1- 9João Pedro
- 17M. Rogers
- 10C. Palmer
- 7Pedro Neto
- 14J. Henderson
- 25M. Caicedo
- 6L. Colwill
- 5M. Lacroix
- 34Joshua Kofi Acheampong
- 21J. Hato
- 1E. Martínez
Newcastle
4-2-3-1- 9Y. Wissa
- 11H. Barnes
- 28J. Willock
- 20M. Fernandez-Pardo
- 6Nico González
- 23J. Murphy
- 4S. Botman
- 3L. Hall
- 12M. Thiaw
- 67L. Miley
- 21L. Horníček
Computed on October 21, 2026 at 12:21 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Chelsea have 9 wins, 2 draws and 4 defeats; Newcastle have 5, 4 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Everton(away) | 2-0 | Premier League |
| Oct 10, 2026 | Bournemouth(home) | 5-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 18, 2026 | Brentford(away) | 0-3 | Premier League |
| Sep 12, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-2 | Premier League |
| Sep 9, 2026 | Leeds(home) | 6-3 | League Cup |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Aston Villa(home) | 0-1 | Premier League |
| Oct 12, 2026 | Coventry(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Hull City(home) | 2-1 | Premier League |
| Sep 14, 2026 | Leeds(away) | 1-4 | Premier League |
| Sep 8, 2026 | Millwall(away) | 1-0 | League Cup |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Chelsea wins, 1 draw, 3 Newcastle wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Chelsea 0-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Dec 20, 2025 | Newcastle 2-2 Chelsea | Premier League |
| May 11, 2025 | Newcastle 2-0 Chelsea | Premier League |
| Oct 30, 2024 | Newcastle 2-0 Chelsea | League Cup |
| Oct 27, 2024 | Chelsea 2-1 Newcastle | Premier League |
| Mar 11, 2024 | Chelsea 3-2 Newcastle | Premier League |
How many goals should we expect?
Chelsea score 2.7 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Newcastle score 1.4 and concede 1.9. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea | 2.7 | 1.8 | 3 | 10/15 | 12/15 |
| Newcastle | 1.4 | 1.9 | 2 | 12/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Chelsea sit 4th in Premier League (13 points from 7 matches) and Newcastle sit 11th (8 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Chelsea | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 13 | 13 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 8 |
A question about Chelsea vs Newcastle?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Chelsea vs Newcastle?
- The Footlab AI model makes Chelsea the favourite at 57%, against 22% for a draw and 21% for Newcastle.
- Where and when is Chelsea vs Newcastle played?
- Chelsea vs Newcastle is played on January 2, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stamford Bridge, in the Premier League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.3% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.