Gainsborough Trinity vs Leek Town: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - NorthernRegular Season - 36Kick-off on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Kal Group Stadium, Gainsborough, Lincolnshire
The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Leek Town. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Gainsborough Trinity vs Leek Town?
A very open match: only 19 Elo points separate Gainsborough Trinity (1,796) and Leek Town (1,777).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Gainsborough Trinity have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Leek Town have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 25, 2026 | Quorn(away) | 2-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bury(home) | 0-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | Stockton Town(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Alfreton Town(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Bamber Bridge(home) | 4-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 18, 2026 | AFC Emley(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stockton Town(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 11, 2026 | United of Manchester(away) | 1-1 | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Whitby Town(home) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Northern |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 3 Gainsborough Trinity win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Leek Town win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Feb 24, 2026 | Gainsborough Trinity 2-0 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Feb 7, 2026 | Leek Town 1-0 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Apr 26, 2025 | Gainsborough Trinity 2-1 Leek Town | Non League Premier - Northern |
| Aug 24, 2024 | Leek Town 1-2 Gainsborough Trinity | Non League Premier - Northern |
Last archived meeting: Gainsborough Trinity vs Leek Town on Feb 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Gainsborough Trinity score 1.3 and concede 1.5 goals per match over their last 15; Leek Town score 1.5 and concede 1.0. The model gives a 46% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gainsborough Trinity | 1.3 | 1.5 | 3 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
| Leek Town | 1.5 | 1.0 | 5 | 9/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Gainsborough Trinity sit 8th in Non League Premier - Northern (9 points from 5 matches) and Leek Town sit 15th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Gainsborough Trinity | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| 15 | Leek Town | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 7 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Gainsborough Trinity vs Leek Town?
- The Footlab model makes Gainsborough Trinity the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 29% for Leek Town.
- Where and when is Gainsborough Trinity vs Leek Town played?
- Gainsborough Trinity vs Leek Town is played on March 13, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Kal Group Stadium, in the Non League Premier - Northern.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 46% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Mar 13, 2027BuryvsWarrington Town
- Mar 13, 2027Alfreton TownvsWorkington
- Mar 13, 2027Ilkeston TownvsCurzon Ashton
- Mar 13, 2027Ashton UnitedvsGuiseley AFC
- Mar 13, 2027Bamber BridgevsRedcar Athletic
- Mar 13, 2027Lancaster CityvsAFC Emley
- Mar 13, 2027United of ManchestervsCleethorpes Town
- Mar 13, 2027Whitby TownvsAvro