Leganes vs Valladolid: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal de Butarque, Leganés
The Footlab model makes Leganes the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Valladolid. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Leganes vs Valladolid?
A very open match: only 60 Elo points separate Leganes (1,930) and Valladolid (1,871).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Leganes have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Valladolid have 5, 2 and 8.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Girona(away) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 0-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 7, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 4, 2026 | Al-Rayyan SC(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 2026 | Eibar(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Mallorca(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Sporting Gijon(away) | 4-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 5, 2026 | Gimnástica Segoviana(away) | 3-0 | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Groningen(away) | 0-1 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Leganes win(s), 2 draw(s), 1 Valladolid win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2026 | Valladolid 3-2 Leganes | Segunda División |
| Jan 11, 2026 | Leganes 3-0 Valladolid | Segunda División |
| May 24, 2025 | Leganes 3-0 Valladolid | La Liga |
| Oct 10, 2024 | Leganes 3-1 Valladolid | Friendlies Clubs |
| Aug 28, 2024 | Valladolid 0-0 Leganes | La Liga |
| Feb 3, 2024 | Leganes 0-0 Valladolid | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Valladolid vs Leganes on Mar 14, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Leganes score 0.9 and concede 0.9 goals per match over their last 15; Valladolid score 1.1 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 47% probability of over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leganes | 0.9 | 0.9 | 8 | 5/15 | 6/15 |
| Valladolid | 1.1 | 1.1 | 5 | 4/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Leganes sit 3rd in Segunda División (4 points from 2 matches) and Valladolid sit 21st (0 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Leganes | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 |
| 21 | Valladolid | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Leganes vs Valladolid?
- The Footlab model makes Leganes the favourite at 43%, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Valladolid.
- Where and when is Leganes vs Valladolid played?
- Leganes vs Valladolid is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal de Butarque, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 47% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.