Sporting Gijon vs Castellón: prediction and stats
Segunda DivisiónRegular Season - 23Kick-off on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Municipal El Molinón, Gijón
The Footlab AI model makes Castellón the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Sporting Gijon. The most likely score is 1-1. If Castellón wins, the most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,872 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 20, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Sporting Gijon vs Castellón?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Sporting Gijon (1,996) and Castellón (2,091).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Sporting Gijon vs Castellón
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Sporting Gijon
4-4-2- 27Enol Prendes
- 16A. Sarco
- 14Álex Corredera
- 8M. Rodriguez
- 10César Gelabert
- 7Gaspar Campos
- 2Guille Rosas
- 44Andrés Cuenca
- 23Jorge Sáenz
- 4E. Gularte
- 1Rubén Yáñez
Castellón
4-4-2- 10Israel Suero
- 16A. Jakobsen
- 8Barri
- 18Pablo Santiago
- 6M. Orozco
- 21Álvaro Martín
- 5Alberto Jiménez
- 4A. Sienra
- 22J. Mellot
- 14Iñigo Córdoba
- 13R. Matthys
Computed on October 20, 2026 at 04:30 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Sporting Gijon have 8 wins, 1 draw and 6 defeats; Castellón have 8, 4 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Albacete(home) | 2-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Cadiz(away) | 1-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Celta de Vigo II(home) | 3-2 | Segunda División |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Oviedo(away) | 0-2 | Segunda División |
| Sep 19, 2026 | FC Andorra(away) | 3-1 | Segunda División |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Las Palmas(away) | 3-0 | Segunda División |
| Oct 11, 2026 | FC Andorra(away) | 0-1 | Segunda División |
| Oct 4, 2026 | AD Ceuta FC(home) | 1-1 | Segunda División |
| Sep 28, 2026 | Leganes(away) | 2-0 | Segunda División |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Tenerife(home) | 5-0 | Segunda División |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 3 Sporting Gijon wins, 0 draws, 3 Castellón wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | Sporting Gijon 4-1 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Oct 5, 2025 | Castellón 3-1 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| May 5, 2025 | Castellón 4-3 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| Oct 14, 2024 | Sporting Gijon 2-1 Castellón | Segunda División |
| Jan 24, 2021 | Castellón 2-0 Sporting Gijon | Segunda División |
| Nov 2, 2020 | Sporting Gijon 1-0 Castellón | Segunda División |
Last archived meeting: Sporting Gijon vs Castellón on Mar 15, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Sporting Gijon score 1.4 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Castellón score 1.6 and concede 0.9. The model gives a 52% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Gijon | 1.4 | 1.3 | 5 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Castellón | 1.6 | 0.9 | 7 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Sporting Gijon sit 4th in Segunda División (19 points from 10 matches) and Castellón sit 2nd (23 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 9 | 19 |
A question about Sporting Gijon vs Castellón?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Sporting Gijon vs Castellón?
- The Footlab AI model makes Castellón the favourite at 40%, against 27% for a draw and 33% for Sporting Gijon.
- Where and when is Sporting Gijon vs Castellón played?
- Sporting Gijon vs Castellón is played on January 24, 2027 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Municipal El Molinón, in the Segunda División.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 52% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.