Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan: prediction and stats
EkstraklasaRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, Warszawa
The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Legia Warszawa. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
A very open match: only 82 Elo points separate Legia Warszawa (2,059) and Lech Poznan (2,141).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Legia Warszawa have 11 wins, 3 draws and 1 defeats; Lech Poznan have 11, 3 and 1.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 14, 2026 | Radomiak Radom(home) | 5-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Korona Kielce(away) | 1-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Zaglebie Lubin(home) | 3-1 | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 24, 2026 | Pogon Szczecin(away) | 1-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | FC Thun(home) | 7-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 14, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(away) | 5-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Piast Gliwice(home) | 3-0 | Ekstraklasa |
| Aug 6, 2026 | KI Klaksvik(home) | 1-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Wieczysta Kraków(away) | 2-1 | Ekstraklasa |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 Legia Warszawa win(s), 1 draw(s), 3 Lech Poznan win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 26, 2026 | Lech Poznan 4-0 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| Oct 26, 2025 | Legia Warszawa 0-0 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Jul 13, 2025 | Lech Poznan 1-2 Legia Warszawa | Super Cup |
| May 11, 2025 | Legia Warszawa 0-1 Lech Poznan | Ekstraklasa |
| Nov 10, 2024 | Lech Poznan 5-2 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
| May 12, 2024 | Lech Poznan 1-2 Legia Warszawa | Ekstraklasa |
Last archived meeting: Lech Poznan vs Legia Warszawa on Apr 26, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Legia Warszawa score 1.9 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Lech Poznan score 2.6 and concede 0.7. The model gives a 55% probability of over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Legia Warszawa | 1.9 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
| Lech Poznan | 2.6 | 0.7 | 7 | 7/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Legia Warszawa sit 1st in Ekstraklasa (11 points from 5 matches) and Lech Poznan sit 4th (7 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Legia Warszawa | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 11 | 3 | 11 |
| 4 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan?
- The Footlab model makes Lech Poznan the favourite at 41%, against 26% for a draw and 33% for Legia Warszawa.
- Where and when is Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan played?
- Legia Warszawa vs Lech Poznan is played on October 24, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego, in the Ekstraklasa.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 55% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Oct 24, 2026JagielloniavsWisla Plock
- Oct 24, 2026Slask WroclawvsWieczysta Kraków
- Oct 24, 2026Wisla KrakowvsRaków Częstochowa
- Oct 24, 2026Korona KielcevsGKS Katowice
- Oct 24, 2026Pogon SzczecinvsRadomiak Radom
- Oct 24, 2026Piast GliwicevsCracovia Krakow
- Oct 24, 2026Widzew ŁódźvsGornik Zabrze
- Oct 24, 2026Motor LublinvsZaglebie Lubin