Lesotho vs Niger: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Setsoto Stadium, Maseru
The Footlab AI model makes Niger the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Lesotho. The most likely score is 1-1. If Niger wins, the most likely score is 0-1.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,365 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 13, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lesotho vs Niger?
A very open match: only 97 Elo points separate Lesotho (1,366) and Niger (1,463).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lesotho vs Niger
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lesotho
5-4-1- 9M. Sera
- 11Neo Mokhachane
- 7T. Letsema
- 20T. Makhele
- 10Lehlohonolo Fothoane
- 20T. Makhele
- 21R. Mokokoane
- 2Motlomelo Mkwanazi
- 17Thabang Malane
- 13F. Matlabe
- 16S. Moerane
Niger
4-2-3-1- 7D. Sosah
- 14A. Muhammad
- 9K. Amoustapha
- 12O. Badamassi
- 12O. Badamassi
- 6Y. Oumarou
- 3O. Sako
- 2R. Alhassane
- 24A. Camara
- 24A. Camara
- 22M. Tandja
Computed on October 13, 2026 at 10:11 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lesotho have 3 wins, 3 draws and 9 defeats; Niger have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2026 | Morocco(home) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Niger(away) | 1-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 7, 2026 | Kenya(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Kenya(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Seychelles(home) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 6, 2026 | Algeria(away) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Sep 29, 2026 | Gabon(away) | 0-2 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Sep 25, 2026 | Lesotho(home) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Jun 8, 2026 | Mauritania(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Benin(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
In the last meeting: 0 Lesotho wins, 0 draws, 1 Niger win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 25, 2026 | Niger 2-1 Lesotho | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
How many goals should we expect?
Lesotho score 0.5 and concede 1.8 goals per match over their last 15; Niger score 0.8 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 40% probability of over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lesotho | 0.5 | 1.8 | 4 | 4/15 | 8/15 |
| Niger | 0.8 | 1.2 | 5 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lesotho sit 4th in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (0 points from 2 matches) and Niger sit 3rd (3 points from 2 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Niger | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 4 | Lesotho | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
A question about Lesotho vs Niger?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lesotho vs Niger?
- The Footlab AI model makes Niger the favourite at 42%, against 30% for a draw and 28% for Lesotho.
- Where and when is Lesotho vs Niger played?
- Lesotho vs Niger is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Setsoto Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 40% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.