Lesotho vs Niger: prediction and stats
Africa Cup of Nations - QualificationQualification - 5Kick-off on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC)Setsoto Stadium, Maseru
The Footlab model makes Lesotho the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Niger. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lesotho vs Niger?
A very open match: only 95 Elo points separate Lesotho (1,373) and Niger (1,469).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lesotho have 4 wins, 4 draws and 7 defeats; Niger have 3, 6 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Kenya(away) | 0-4 | Friendlies |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Kenya(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 29, 2026 | Seychelles(home) | 2-1 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2026 | Seychelles(away) | 0-0 | Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Malawi(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Mauritania(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | Benin(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Togo(home) | 0-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Libya(away) | 0-0 | Friendlies |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Guinea(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
How many goals should we expect?
Lesotho score 0.5 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Niger score 0.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 33% probability of over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lesotho | 0.5 | 1.6 | 5 | 4/15 | 7/15 |
| Niger | 0.6 | 1.1 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lesotho sit 3rd in Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification (4 points from 6 matches) and Niger sit 3rd (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Niger | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 7 |
| 3 | Lesotho | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lesotho vs Niger?
- The Footlab model makes Lesotho the favourite at 36%, against 32% for a draw and 32% for Niger.
- Where and when is Lesotho vs Niger played?
- Lesotho vs Niger is played on March 24, 2027 at 05:00 PM (UTC) at Setsoto Stadium, in the Africa Cup of Nations - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 33% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.