Lewes vs Welling United: prediction and stats
Non League Premier - IsthmianRegular Season - 24Kick-off on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)The Dripping Pan, Lewes, East Sussex
The Footlab model makes Welling United the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Lewes. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lewes vs Welling United?
A very open match: only 79 Elo points separate Lewes (1,686) and Welling United (1,764).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lewes have 4 wins, 3 draws and 8 defeats; Welling United have 10, 2 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Whyteleafe(home) | 3-1 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 15, 2026 | St Albans City(away) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Whitehawk(away) | 0-0 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Enfield Town(home) | 0-4 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Chatham Town(away) | 1-2 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Dartford(away) | 3-0 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Stanway Rovers(home) | 4-0 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 11, 2026 | Leatherhead(away) | 1-4 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Whitehawk(home) | 2-0 | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 1, 2026 | Folkestone Invicta(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies Clubs |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 2 Lewes win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Welling United win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 20, 2025 | Lewes 1-0 Welling United | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
| Aug 16, 2025 | Welling United 0-1 Lewes | Non League Premier - Isthmian |
Last archived meeting: Lewes vs Welling United on Dec 20, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Lewes score 1.1 and concede 1.7 goals per match over their last 15; Welling United score 2.0 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 62% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewes | 1.1 | 1.7 | 3 | 8/15 | 11/15 |
| Welling United | 2.0 | 1.3 | 5 | 8/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lewes sit 9th in Non League Premier - Isthmian (7 points from 4 matches) and Welling United sit 3rd (9 points from 4 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Welling United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| 9 | Lewes | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 7 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lewes vs Welling United?
- The Footlab model makes Welling United the favourite at 51%, against 23% for a draw and 25% for Lewes.
- Where and when is Lewes vs Welling United played?
- Lewes vs Welling United is played on December 28, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at The Dripping Pan, in the Non League Premier - Isthmian.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 62% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Dec 28, 2026DartfordvsDulwich Hamlet
- Dec 28, 2026LeatherheadvsCarshalton Athletic
- Dec 28, 2026WhitehawkvsEastbourne Borough
- Dec 28, 2026Brentwood TownvsAveley
- Dec 28, 2026RamsgatevsChatham Town
- Dec 28, 2026Three BridgesvsBurgess Hill Town
- Dec 28, 2026CheshuntvsEnfield Town
- Dec 28, 2026Cray WanderersvsWhyteleafe