llanelli AFC vs Caerau (Ely): prediction and stats
FAW ChampionshipSouth - 28Kick-off on April 2, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC)Stebonheath Park, Llanelli, Carmarthenshire
The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for llanelli AFC. The most likely score is 1-2.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.7% of the 2,457 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 16, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win llanelli AFC vs Caerau (Ely)?
Caerau (Ely) starts as the favourite with a 206-point Elo edge (1,741 vs 1,535).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for llanelli AFC vs Caerau (Ely)
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
llanelli AFC
Not enough data to predict the llanelli AFC lineup.
Caerau (Ely)
Not enough data to predict the Caerau (Ely) lineup.
Computed on October 16, 2026 at 04:36 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, llanelli AFC have 1 win, 2 draws and 12 defeats; Caerau (Ely) have 7, 3 and 5.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Ynyshir Albions(away) | 2-6 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Baglan Dragons(home) | 1-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Llantwit Major(away) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Caerau (Ely)(away) | 0-3 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 4, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 0-2 | FAW Championship |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | Aberystwyth Town(away) | 1-0 | FAW Championship |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Afan Lido(home) | 2-0 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Cardiff Draconians(away) | 3-1 | FAW Championship |
| Sep 11, 2026 | llanelli AFC(home) | 3-0 | FAW Championship |
| Aug 31, 2026 | Treowen Stars(home) | 3-2 | FAW Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 5 llanelli AFC wins, 0 draws, 1 Caerau (Ely) win.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 11, 2026 | Caerau (Ely) 3-0 llanelli AFC | FAW Championship |
| Mar 7, 2025 | llanelli AFC 3-1 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Oct 11, 2024 | Caerau (Ely) 1-2 llanelli AFC | FAW Championship |
| Nov 3, 2023 | llanelli AFC 4-0 Caerau (Ely) | FAW Championship |
| Oct 27, 2023 | Caerau (Ely) 1-2 llanelli AFC | FAW Championship |
| Sep 7, 2019 | Caerau (Ely) 2-3 llanelli AFC | FAW Championship |
Last archived meeting: Caerau (Ely) vs llanelli AFC on Sep 11, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
llanelli AFC score 0.8 and concede 3.1 goals per match over their last 15; Caerau (Ely) score 2.1 and concede 1.8. The model gives a 68% probability of over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| llanelli AFC | 0.8 | 3.1 | 0 | 8/15 | 12/15 |
| Caerau (Ely) | 2.1 | 1.8 | 4 | 10/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
llanelli AFC sit 16th in FAW Championship (2 points from 11 matches) and Caerau (Ely) sit 4th (19 points from 10 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Caerau (Ely) | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 18 | 19 |
| 16 | llanelli AFC | 11 | 0 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 33 | 2 |
A question about llanelli AFC vs Caerau (Ely)?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for llanelli AFC vs Caerau (Ely)?
- The Footlab AI model makes Caerau (Ely) the favourite at 55%, against 22% for a draw and 23% for llanelli AFC.
- Where and when is llanelli AFC vs Caerau (Ely) played?
- llanelli AFC vs Caerau (Ely) is played on April 2, 2027 at 06:30 PM (UTC) at Stebonheath Park, in the FAW Championship.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 68% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.7% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Apr 2, 2027Pontypridd TownvsCardiff Draconians
- Apr 2, 2027Caerphilly AthleticvsCarmarthen Town
- Apr 2, 2027Baglan DragonsvsPontardawe Town
- Apr 2, 2027Newport CityvsAfan Lido
- Apr 3, 2027Aberystwyth TownvsYnyshir Albions
- Apr 3, 2027Llantwit MajorvsTrethomas Bluebirds
- Apr 3, 2027Treowen StarsvsSwansea University