CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, Sofia
The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Ludogorets. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate CSKA Sofia (1,951) and Ludogorets (1,987).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, CSKA Sofia have 8 wins, 3 draws and 4 defeats; Ludogorets have 7, 5 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 20, 2026 | OFI(away) | 0-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 5-0 | First League |
| Aug 13, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(home) | 1-3 | UEFA Europa League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(away) | 3-0 | First League |
| Aug 6, 2026 | Maccabi Tel Aviv(away) | 3-0 | UEFA Europa League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Slavia Sofia(home) | 1-1 | First League |
| Aug 15, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(home) | 2-0 | First League |
| Aug 9, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | Botev Vratsa(home) | 2-1 | First League |
| Jul 30, 2026 | Hapoel Tel Aviv(home) | 2-2 | UEFA Europa Conference League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 2 CSKA Sofia win(s), 2 draw(s), 2 Ludogorets win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 25, 2026 | Ludogorets 1-0 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| May 3, 2026 | CSKA Sofia 1-0 Ludogorets | First League |
| Apr 29, 2026 | CSKA Sofia 0-0 Ludogorets | Cup |
| Apr 21, 2026 | Ludogorets 1-2 CSKA Sofia | Cup |
| Mar 14, 2026 | Ludogorets 3-0 CSKA Sofia | First League |
| Oct 5, 2025 | CSKA Sofia 0-0 Ludogorets | First League |
Last archived meeting: Ludogorets vs CSKA Sofia on May 25, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
CSKA Sofia score 1.7 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Ludogorets score 1.6 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 1.7 | 1.1 | 7 | 5/15 | 11/15 |
| Ludogorets | 1.6 | 1.1 | 5 | 7/15 | 5/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
CSKA Sofia sit 3rd in First League (13 points from 5 matches) and Ludogorets sit 1st (16 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ludogorets | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | 16 |
| 3 | CSKA Sofia | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 13 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets?
- The Footlab model makes CSKA Sofia the favourite at 39%, against 29% for a draw and 31% for Ludogorets.
- Where and when is CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets played?
- CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Bâlgarska Armija, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.