Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna: prediction and stats
First LeagueRegular Season - 12Kick-off on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Gradski Stadion, Rousse
The Footlab model makes Dunav Ruse the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Spartak Varna. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna?
A very open match: only 17 Elo points separate Dunav Ruse (1,731) and Spartak Varna (1,714).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Dunav Ruse have 3 wins, 5 draws and 7 defeats; Spartak Varna have 6, 2 and 7.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 21, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 1-3 | First League |
| Aug 16, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(away) | 2-1 | First League |
| Aug 8, 2026 | Arda Kardzhali(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Aug 2, 2026 | CSKA Sofia(away) | 1-2 | First League |
| Jul 27, 2026 | Ludogorets(home) | 0-2 | First League |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 2026 | Levski Sofia(away) | 0-6 | First League |
| Aug 17, 2026 | Septemvri Sofia(home) | 0-1 | First League |
| Aug 10, 2026 | Botev Plovdiv(away) | 2-3 | First League |
| Aug 3, 2026 | Lokomotiv Plovdiv(home) | 1-0 | First League |
| Jul 26, 2026 | Cherno More Varna(away) | 3-0 | First League |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Dunav Ruse win(s), 1 draw(s), 4 Spartak Varna win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Jan 24, 2026 | Dunav Ruse 1-3 Spartak Varna | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 30, 2024 | Spartak Varna 3-1 Dunav Ruse | Second League |
| Sep 17, 2023 | Dunav Ruse 0-1 Spartak Varna | Second League |
| Jul 17, 2021 | Spartak Varna 0-4 Dunav Ruse | Friendlies Clubs |
| Mar 14, 2021 | Spartak Varna 3-1 Dunav Ruse | Third League - Northeast |
| Aug 29, 2020 | Dunav Ruse 1-1 Spartak Varna | Third League - Northeast |
Last archived meeting: Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna on Jan 24, 2026
How many goals should we expect?
Dunav Ruse score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Spartak Varna score 1.7 and concede 1.5. The model gives a 43% probability of over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunav Ruse | 0.9 | 1.3 | 4 | 8/15 | 7/15 |
| Spartak Varna | 1.7 | 1.5 | 4 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Dunav Ruse sit 13th in First League (3 points from 6 matches) and Spartak Varna sit 7th (7 points from 6 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Spartak Varna | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 12 | 7 |
| 13 | Dunav Ruse | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 12 | 3 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna?
- The Footlab model makes Dunav Ruse the favourite at 44%, against 29% for a draw and 27% for Spartak Varna.
- Where and when is Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna played?
- Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna is played on October 24, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Gradski Stadion, in the First League.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 43% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.