Lugo vs Barakaldo: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 17Kick-off on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Anxo Carro, Lugo
The Footlab AI model makes Lugo the favourite at 64%, against 24% for a draw and 12% for Barakaldo. The most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.8% of the 2,440 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 15, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Lugo vs Barakaldo?
On Elo ratings, Lugo has 1,970 points and Barakaldo 1,924.
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Lugo vs Barakaldo
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Lugo
4-3-3- 17Chiqui
- 11M. Dauda
- 16A. Palma
- 20A. Ulloa
- 15P. Parrilla
- 6Kevin Presa
- 5Pol Moreno
- 19R. Lucero
- 4Ibaider Garriz
- 3Pere Haro
- 1Marc Martínez
Barakaldo
4-3-3- 19Ángel Troncho
- 20Okolo
- 11Carlos Mattheus
- 8Julen Huidobro
- 15I. Jimenez
- 21X. Fernandez
- 17Pablo Trigueros
- 3Ander Zoilo
- 5Aritz Muguruza
- 4O. Marotias
- 13Gaizka Campos
Computed on October 15, 2026 at 11:53 PM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lugo have 10 wins, 2 draws and 3 defeats; Barakaldo have 4, 5 and 6.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 12, 2026 | UD Logroñés(home) | 3-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 2, 2026 | Real Avilés(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 20, 2026 | Zamora(away) | 2-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 13, 2026 | CD Coria(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 10, 2026 | UD Ourense(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | Arenas Getxo(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 3-3 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Racing Ferrol(away) | 0-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 11, 2026 | Extremadura 1924(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 0 Lugo wins, 2 draws, 2 Barakaldo wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 25, 2026 | Barakaldo 3-0 Lugo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 31, 2025 | Lugo 2-2 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Mar 9, 2025 | Barakaldo 3-2 Lugo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 15, 2024 | Lugo 0-0 Barakaldo | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
How many goals should we expect?
Lugo score 1.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Barakaldo score 1.1 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 42% probability of over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lugo | 1.3 | 0.8 | 7 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
| Barakaldo | 1.1 | 1.2 | 4 | 6/15 | 4/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Lugo sit 1st in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (19 points from 7 matches) and Barakaldo sit 17th (6 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 4 | 19 |
| 17 | Barakaldo | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 10 | 6 |
A question about Lugo vs Barakaldo?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Lugo vs Barakaldo?
- The Footlab AI model makes Lugo the favourite at 64%, against 24% for a draw and 12% for Barakaldo.
- Where and when is Lugo vs Barakaldo played?
- Lugo vs Barakaldo is played on December 20, 2026 at 04:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Anxo Carro, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 42% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.8% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
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- Dec 20, 2026PonferradinavsAthletic Club II
- Dec 20, 2026UD LogroñésvsReal Unión
- Dec 20, 2026CacereñovsCD Coria
- Dec 20, 2026PontevedravsMirandes
- Dec 20, 2026Racing FerrolvsZamora
- Dec 20, 2026Arenas GetxovsUnionistas de Salamanca
- Dec 20, 2026UD OurensevsDeportivo La Coruña II