Where and when is Lugo vs Ponferradina played?

Lugo vs Ponferradina is played on March 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Anxo Carro, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.

Will there be over 2.5 goals?

The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.

How reliable is this prediction?

The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.

Match

Lugo vs Ponferradina: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 30Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Anxo Carro, Lugo

Lugo

Ponferradina

The Footlab model makes Lugo the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Ponferradina. The most likely score is 1-1.

This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Aug 24, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Lugo vs Ponferradina?

A very open match: only 84 Elo points separate Lugo (1,884) and Ponferradina (1,968).

Lugo win35 %

Draw32 %

Ponferradina win33 %

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Lugo have 5 wins, 4 draws and 6 defeats; Ponferradina have 6, 5 and 4.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Lugo
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 21, 2026	Ourense CF(home)	1-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 15, 2026	Coruxo(home)	2-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Deportivo La Coruna(away)	0-1	Friendlies Clubs
May 23, 2026	Arenteiro(home)	0-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026	Celta de Vigo II(away)	1-0	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Ponferradina
Date	Opponent	Score	Competition
Aug 19, 2026	Real Madrid II(home)	2-2	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 8, 2026	Marino de Luanco(away)	3-0	Friendlies Clubs
Aug 1, 2026	Real Avilés(home)	1-1	Friendlies Clubs
Jul 29, 2026	Oviedo(away)	0-4	Friendlies Clubs
Jun 20, 2026	Celta de Vigo II(away)	1-4	Primera División RFEF - Play Offs

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 6 meetings: 1 Lugo win(s), 3 draw(s), 2 Ponferradina win(s).

Date	Score	Competition
Feb 1, 2026	Lugo 0-2 Ponferradina	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Nov 15, 2025	Ponferradina 1-1 Lugo	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Mar 23, 2025	Ponferradina 0-1 Lugo	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Dec 14, 2024	Lugo 0-1 Ponferradina	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Mar 17, 2024	Ponferradina 0-0 Lugo	Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 17, 2023	Lugo 0-0 Ponferradina	Primera División RFEF - Group 1

Last archived meeting: Lugo vs Ponferradina on Feb 1, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Lugo score 0.9 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Ponferradina score 1.1 and concede 1.3. The model gives a 35% probability of over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score.

Club	Goals scored / match	Goals conceded / match	Clean sheets	Both teams scored	Over 2.5 goals
Lugo	0.9	1.3	5	6/15	6/15
Ponferradina	1.1	1.3	7	6/15	7/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Lugo sit 9th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (53 points from 38 matches) and Ponferradina sit 4th (60 points from 38 matches).

The current season has no played match yet: final standings of the 2025-26 season.

Final 2025-26 standings
#	Club	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
4	Ponferradina	38	17	9	12	43	33	60
9	Lugo	38	13	14	11	36	40	53

Verdict, probable XI and verified absences

The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.

Open the full match card in the app

No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Lugo vs Ponferradina?: The Footlab model makes Lugo the favourite at 35%, against 32% for a draw and 33% for Ponferradina.
Where and when is Lugo vs Ponferradina played?: Lugo vs Ponferradina is played on March 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Anxo Carro, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?: The Footlab model gives a 35% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?: The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.