Match

Real Avilés vs Barakaldo: prediction and stats

Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 30Kick-off on March 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, Avilés

Real AvilésBarakaldo

The Footlab AI model makes Real Avilés the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Barakaldo. The most likely score is 1-1. If Real Avilés wins, the most likely score is 1-0.

Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.2% of the 3,263 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy

Probabilities recomputed on Oct 24, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.

Who will win Real Avilés vs Barakaldo?

A very open match: only 28 Elo points separate Real Avilés (1,926) and Barakaldo (1,954).

48%27%25%
Real Avilés winDrawBarakaldo win

Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.

See the probabilities after AI analysisThe AI adds press reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

Probable lineup for Real Avilés vs Barakaldo

Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.

Real Avilés

4-3-3
  1. 14Berto Cayarga
  2. 8B. Abelenda
  3. 19N. Poquet
  1. 7Cris Montes
  2. 9Álvaro Santamaría
  3. 5Samuel
  1. 20O. Carracedo
  2. 21Jon Sillero
  3. 23A. Lopez
  4. 15Eric Pérez
  1. 1Álvaro Ratón

Barakaldo

4-3-3
  1. 27E. Mateos
  2. 19Ángel Troncho
  3. 11Carlos Mattheus
  1. 15I. Jimenez
  2. 21X. Fernandez
  3. 8Julen Huidobro
  1. 3Ander Zoilo
  2. 18Benat Gomez
  3. 17Pablo Trigueros
  4. 5Aritz Muguruza
  1. 13Gaizka Campos

Computed on October 24, 2026 at 11:11 PM (UTC).

See the lineup updated by the AIPress reports and last-minute absences, in the Footlab AI app. Sign-in required.

What is the recent form of both teams?

Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Real Avilés have 5 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats; Barakaldo have 5, 5 and 5.

The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.

Real Avilés
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026UD Logroñés(home)1-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 18, 2026UD Ourense(home)3-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 11, 2026Ponferradina(away)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 2, 2026Lugo(home)1-2Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Barakaldo(away)3-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Barakaldo
DateOpponentScoreCompetition
Oct 24, 2026Ponferradina(away)0-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 17, 2026Mirandes(home)2-0Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 10, 2026UD Ourense(away)0-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Oct 3, 2026Arenas Getxo(home)1-1Primera División RFEF - Group 1
Sep 27, 2026Real Avilés(home)3-3Primera División RFEF - Group 1

What does the head-to-head say?

Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Real Avilés wins, 1 draw, 1 Barakaldo win.

DateScoreCompetition
Sep 27, 2026Barakaldo 3-3 Real AvilésPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
May 17, 2026Real Avilés 1-4 BarakaldoPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Dec 7, 2025Barakaldo 1-2 Real AvilésPrimera División RFEF - Group 1
Aug 17, 2024Barakaldo 1-4 Real AvilésFriendlies Clubs

Last archived meeting: Barakaldo vs Real Avilés on Sep 27, 2026

How many goals should we expect?

Real Avilés score 1.7 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Barakaldo score 1.2 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score.

ClubGoals scored / matchGoals conceded / matchClean sheetsBoth teams scoredOver 2.5 goals
Real Avilés1.71.3311/158/15
Barakaldo1.21.165/154/15

Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.

Where do both teams sit in the table?

Real Avilés sit 13th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (11 points from 9 matches) and Barakaldo sit 15th (10 points from 9 matches).

2026-27 standings
#ClubPWDLGFGAPts
13Real Avilés9324151311
15Barakaldo924381010

A question about Real Avilés vs Barakaldo?

Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.

Ask the AI a questionOpen the full match card in the app

Sign-in required. No odds displayed, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.

How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?

The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite for Real Avilés vs Barakaldo?
The Footlab AI model makes Real Avilés the favourite at 48%, against 27% for a draw and 25% for Barakaldo.
Where and when is Real Avilés vs Barakaldo played?
Real Avilés vs Barakaldo is played on March 28, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio Román Suárez Puerta, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
Will there be over 2.5 goals?
The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
How reliable is this prediction?
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.2% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.

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