Ponferradina vs Real Unión: prediction and stats
Primera División RFEF - Group 1Group 1 - 31Kick-off on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Estadio El Toralín, Ponferrada
The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Real Unión. The most likely score is 1-1. If Ponferradina wins, the most likely score is 1-0.
Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome in 54.4% of the 2,800 matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Oct 19, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ponferradina vs Real Unión?
A very open match: only 10 Elo points separate Ponferradina (1,977) and Real Unión (1,987).
Computed by the Footlab AI model from our own data only, with no AI analysis.
Probable lineup for Ponferradina vs Real Unión
Computed by Footlab AI from our own data only: recent lineups, squads and known absences. It does not take the press or last-minute absences into account.
Ponferradina
4-3-3- 7C. Calderon
- 10Borja Valle
- 11Quicala Bari
- 6Fede San Emeterio
- 8Arturo Molina
- 15O. Vacas
- 3Sergio Nieto
- 4A. Jelbat
- 24Koke
- 2David Andújar
- 1Álex Domínguez
Real Unión
4-3-3- 20Ander Martín
- 7Unai García
- 11Aitor Galarza Altuna
- 23Sangalli
- 6B. Gaubeka
- 22Juan de la Mata
- 2Javi Fontán
- 4Jordi Pola
- 3Álvaro Mateo
- 5Gaizka Martínez
- 1Jon Tena
Computed on October 19, 2026 at 08:00 AM (UTC).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ponferradina have 5 wins, 6 draws and 4 defeats; Real Unión have 5, 6 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Zamora(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Real Avilés(home) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 4, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 27, 2026 | Pontevedra(away) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Mérida AD(home) | 1-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 17, 2026 | Extremadura 1924(away) | 2-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 11, 2026 | Athletic Club II(away) | 0-0 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 3, 2026 | UD Ourense(home) | 1-1 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 26, 2026 | Deportivo La Coruña II(away) | 0-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Sep 19, 2026 | Mirandes(home) | 2-2 | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 4 meetings: 2 Ponferradina wins, 2 draws, 0 Real Unión wins.
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Apr 6, 2025 | Ponferradina 3-1 Real Unión | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Nov 9, 2024 | Real Unión 2-2 Ponferradina | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| May 12, 2024 | Ponferradina 2-1 Real Unión | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
| Oct 22, 2023 | Real Unión 1-1 Ponferradina | Primera División RFEF - Group 1 |
Last archived meeting: Ponferradina vs Real Unión on Apr 6, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Ponferradina score 0.9 and concede 1.1 goals per match over their last 15; Real Unión score 1.9 and concede 1.6. The model gives a 45% probability of over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ponferradina | 0.9 | 1.1 | 7 | 6/15 | 5/15 |
| Real Unión | 1.9 | 1.6 | 3 | 11/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ponferradina sit 8th in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 (12 points from 8 matches) and Real Unión sit 13th (10 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 | Ponferradina | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| 13 | Real Unión | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 15 | 13 | 10 |
A question about Ponferradina vs Real Unión?
Ask Footlab AI: lineups, absences, player form, stats, how the match could unfold.
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How does Footlab AI compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. When bookmakers publish odds for the match, their consensus is built into the calculation: that is what proved most accurate on past matches. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ponferradina vs Real Unión?
- The Footlab AI model makes Ponferradina the favourite at 40%, against 28% for a draw and 32% for Real Unión.
- Where and when is Ponferradina vs Real Unión played?
- Ponferradina vs Real Unión is played on April 4, 2027 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Estadio El Toralín, in the Primera División RFEF - Group 1.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab AI model gives a 45% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- Footlab AI's cards found the right outcome (home win, draw or away win) in 54.4% of the matches already evaluated, against 33.3% for random guessing, a level comparable with the bookmakers' favourite. The comparison with bookmakers and the breakdown by competition and Elo gap are published on the accuracy page.