Luxembourg U17 vs Italy U17: prediction and stats
UEFA U17 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 1Kick-off on November 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC)Stade Josy Barthel, Luxembourg
The Footlab model makes Italy U17 the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Luxembourg U17. The most likely score is 1-2.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 25, 2026 — the full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Luxembourg U17 vs Italy U17?
Italy U17 is a heavy favourite: 1,787 Elo points against 1,441 — a 346-point gap.
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Luxembourg U17 have 4 wins, 5 draws and 6 defeats; Italy U17 have 7, 4 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 28, 2026 | Hungary U17(home) | 0-1 | UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification |
| Apr 25, 2026 | Liechtenstein U17(home) | 5-0 | UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification |
| Apr 22, 2026 | Armenia U17(away) | 2-2 | UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification |
| Feb 19, 2026 | Malta U17(home) | 3-0 | Friendlies |
| Feb 17, 2026 | Malta U17(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | Belgium U17(away) | 1-1 | UEFA U17 Championship |
| Jun 4, 2026 | Spain U17(home) | 1-1 | UEFA U17 Championship |
| Jun 1, 2026 | Denmark U17(away) | 3-3 | UEFA U17 Championship |
| May 29, 2026 | Montenegro U17(away) | 3-0 | UEFA U17 Championship |
| May 26, 2026 | France U17(home) | 1-0 | UEFA U17 Championship |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Luxembourg U17 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Italy U17 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| May 22, 2022 | Luxembourg U17 0-1 Italy U17 | UEFA U17 Championship |
Last archived meeting: Luxembourg U17 vs Italy U17 on May 22, 2022
How many goals should we expect?
Luxembourg U17 score 1.1 and concede 1.3 goals per match over their last 15; Italy U17 score 1.5 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 70% probability of over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luxembourg U17 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 4 | 5/15 | 7/15 |
| Italy U17 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 6 | 6/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Luxembourg U17 sit 2nd in UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification (4 points from 3 matches) and Italy U17 sit 1st (9 points from 3 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italy U17 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 3 | 9 |
| 2 | Luxembourg U17 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 4 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Luxembourg U17 vs Italy U17?
- The Footlab model makes Italy U17 the favourite at 58%, against 21% for a draw and 21% for Luxembourg U17.
- Where and when is Luxembourg U17 vs Italy U17 played?
- Luxembourg U17 vs Italy U17 is played on November 11, 2026 at 02:00 PM (UTC) at Stade Josy Barthel, in the UEFA U17 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 70% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.
Other matches in the same round
- Sep 23, 2026Iceland U17vsGibraltar U17
- Sep 23, 2026Bosnia-Herzegovina U17vsGreece U17
- Sep 26, 2026Greece U17vsGibraltar U17
- Sep 26, 2026Iceland U17vsBosnia-Herzegovina U17
- Sep 29, 2026Gibraltar U17vsBosnia-Herzegovina U17
- Sep 29, 2026Greece U17vsIceland U17
- Oct 12, 2026Israel U17vsSwitzerland U17
- Oct 12, 2026Spain U17vsLiechtenstein U17