Ukraine U21 vs Croatia U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 22Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Obolon Arena, Kyiv
The Footlab model makes Croatia U21 the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Ukraine U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Ukraine U21 vs Croatia U21?
A very open match: only 37 Elo points separate Ukraine U21 (1,603) and Croatia U21 (1,640).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Ukraine U21 have 4 wins, 2 draws and 9 defeats; Croatia U21 have 9, 3 and 3.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Japan U21(away) | 0-3 | Friendlies |
| Jun 5, 2026 | USA U21(away) | 1-3 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Hungary U21(away) | 2-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Lithuania U21(home) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 17, 2025 | Albania U21(away) | 0-2 | Friendlies |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 6, 2026 | Republic of Ireland U21(home) | 2-2 | Friendlies |
| Jun 3, 2026 | Qatar U23(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
| May 30, 2026 | Greece U21(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Turkey U21(home) | 3-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Hungary U21(away) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 2 meetings: 1 Ukraine U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Croatia U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Croatia U21 1-0 Ukraine U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Jun 21, 2023 | Ukraine U21 2-0 Croatia U21 | UEFA U21 Championship |
Last archived meeting: Croatia U21 vs Ukraine U21 on Oct 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Ukraine U21 score 1.2 and concede 1.6 goals per match over their last 15; Croatia U21 score 1.8 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine U21 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 2 | 7/15 | 8/15 |
| Croatia U21 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 6 | 7/15 | 7/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Ukraine U21 sit 3rd in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (8 points from 6 matches) and Croatia U21 sit 1st (13 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Croatia U21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 1 | 13 |
| 3 | Ukraine U21 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 7 | 8 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Ukraine U21 vs Croatia U21?
- The Footlab model makes Croatia U21 the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Ukraine U21.
- Where and when is Ukraine U21 vs Croatia U21 played?
- Ukraine U21 vs Croatia U21 is played on October 2, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Obolon Arena, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.