Slovenia U21 vs Netherlands U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 22Kick-off on October 2, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadion Stožice, Ljubljana
The Footlab model makes Netherlands U21 the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Slovenia U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Slovenia U21 vs Netherlands U21?
Netherlands U21 starts as the favourite with a 197-point Elo edge (1,707 vs 1,510).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Slovenia U21 have 4 wins, 6 draws and 5 defeats; Netherlands U21 have 8, 3 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 5, 2026 | Albania U21(home) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Norway U21(home) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Bosnia-Herzegovina U21(away) | 0-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Netherlands U21(away) | 0-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Bosnia-Herzegovina U21(home) | 0-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2026 | Belgium U21(home) | 2-1 | Friendlies |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Norway U21(away) | 2-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Israel U21(away) | 1-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Slovenia U21(home) | 2-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Lithuania U21(home) | 2-0 | Friendlies |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Slovenia U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Netherlands U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2025 | Netherlands U21 2-0 Slovenia U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Netherlands U21 vs Slovenia U21 on Nov 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Slovenia U21 score 0.8 and concede 1.2 goals per match over their last 15; Netherlands U21 score 1.9 and concede 1.1. The model gives a 59% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slovenia U21 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 6 | 4/15 | 3/15 |
| Netherlands U21 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 7 | 8/15 | 10/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Slovenia U21 sit 5th in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (5 points from 6 matches) and Netherlands U21 sit 4th (5 points from 5 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Netherlands U21 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 8 | 5 |
| 5 | Slovenia U21 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 10 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Slovenia U21 vs Netherlands U21?
- The Footlab model makes Netherlands U21 the favourite at 40%, against 25% for a draw and 35% for Slovenia U21.
- Where and when is Slovenia U21 vs Netherlands U21 played?
- Slovenia U21 vs Netherlands U21 is played on October 2, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadion Stožice, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 59% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.