Italy U21 vs Poland U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 22Kick-off on October 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Stadio Olimpico, Roma
The Footlab model makes Italy U21 the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Poland U21. The most likely score is 1-1.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Italy U21 vs Poland U21?
A very open match: only 55 Elo points separate Italy U21 (1,707) and Poland U21 (1,652).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Italy U21 have 11 wins, 2 draws and 2 defeats; Poland U21 have 10, 1 and 4.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 8, 2026 | Albania U21(home) | 1-0 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Sweden U21(away) | 4-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 26, 2026 | North Macedonia U21(home) | 4-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Montenegro U21(away) | 4-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Poland U21(away) | 1-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Montenegro U21(away) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Armenia U21(home) | 4-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | North Macedonia U21(away) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 14, 2025 | Italy U21(home) | 2-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Sweden U21(away) | 6-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 0 Italy U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 1 Poland U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 14, 2025 | Poland U21 2-1 Italy U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Poland U21 vs Italy U21 on Nov 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Italy U21 score 2.3 and concede 0.7 goals per match over their last 15; Poland U21 score 2.3 and concede 1.2. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Italy U21 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 8 | 7/15 | 9/15 |
| Poland U21 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 7 | 6/15 | 11/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Italy U21 sit 2nd in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (21 points from 8 matches) and Poland U21 sit 1st (24 points from 8 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poland U21 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 24 |
| 2 | Italy U21 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 5 | 21 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Italy U21 vs Poland U21?
- The Footlab model makes Italy U21 the favourite at 50%, against 24% for a draw and 26% for Poland U21.
- Where and when is Italy U21 vs Poland U21 played?
- Italy U21 vs Poland U21 is played on October 5, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Stadio Olimpico, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.