Greece U21 vs Latvia U21: prediction and stats
UEFA U21 Championship - QualificationGroup Stage - 22Kick-off on October 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC)Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, Athens
The Footlab model makes Greece U21 the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Latvia U21. The most likely score is 2-0.
This model is measured at 53.9% 1X2 accuracy on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. See the measured accuracy
Probabilities recomputed on Aug 26, 2026. The full match card is recomputed continuously until kick-off.
Who will win Greece U21 vs Latvia U21?
Greece U21 starts as the favourite with a 202-point Elo edge (1,578 vs 1,377).
What is the recent form of both teams?
Over their last 15 matches in all competitions, Greece U21 have 10 wins, 1 draws and 4 defeats; Latvia U21 have 3, 3 and 9.
The competition is shown for every match: in pre-season, several of these games are friendlies.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 30, 2026 | Croatia U21(away) | 1-1 | Friendlies |
| May 27, 2026 | Qatar U23(home) | 1-2 | Friendlies |
| Mar 31, 2026 | Germany U21(home) | 0-2 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Malta U21(home) | 5-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Northern Ireland U21(home) | 4-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Date | Opponent | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 31, 2026 | Northern Ireland U21(home) | 1-3 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Mar 27, 2026 | Georgia U21(away) | 1-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 18, 2025 | Malta U21(away) | 1-0 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Nov 13, 2025 | Northern Ireland U21(away) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
| Oct 14, 2025 | Greece U21(home) | 0-1 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
What does the head-to-head say?
Across the last 1 meetings: 1 Greece U21 win(s), 0 draw(s), 0 Latvia U21 win(s).
| Date | Score | Competition |
|---|---|---|
| Oct 14, 2025 | Latvia U21 0-1 Greece U21 | UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification |
Last archived meeting: Latvia U21 vs Greece U21 on Oct 14, 2025
How many goals should we expect?
Greece U21 score 2.3 and concede 0.8 goals per match over their last 15; Latvia U21 score 0.8 and concede 2.0. The model gives a 61% probability of over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score.
| Club | Goals scored / match | Goals conceded / match | Clean sheets | Both teams scored | Over 2.5 goals |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greece U21 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 8 | 5/15 | 10/15 |
| Latvia U21 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 2 | 6/15 | 8/15 |
Over the last 15 matches in all competitions.
Where do both teams sit in the table?
Greece U21 sit 2nd in UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification (18 points from 7 matches) and Latvia U21 sit 5th (5 points from 7 matches).
| # | Club | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Greece U21 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 4 | 18 |
| 5 | Latvia U21 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 12 | 5 |
Verdict, probable XI and verified absences
The full match card recomputes this prediction continuously until kick-off: multi-market verdict, player-by-player probable XI and web-verified absences.
Open the full match card in the app
No odds, no affiliation: the method is published and the accuracy is measured.
How does Footlab compute this prediction?
The model combines both teams' Elo ratings (anchored by competition pool), their recent form weighted by opponent strength, home advantage and a Poisson matrix for scorelines. Its accuracy is measured continuously on the predictions actually published. Methodology and measured accuracy
Frequently asked questions
- Who is the favourite for Greece U21 vs Latvia U21?
- The Footlab model makes Greece U21 the favourite at 64%, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Latvia U21.
- Where and when is Greece U21 vs Latvia U21 played?
- Greece U21 vs Latvia U21 is played on October 1, 2026 at 03:00 PM (UTC) at Olympiako Stadio Spyros Louis, in the UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification.
- Will there be over 2.5 goals?
- The Footlab model gives a 61% probability of at least three goals in this match.
- How reliable is this prediction?
- The Footlab model is measured at 53.9% correct 1X2 outcomes on a temporal hold-out, against 33.3% for random guessing. The breakdown by competition and Elo gap is published on the accuracy page.